Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war

President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control. Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all. But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms.

But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Mr Putin no longer believe he can defend their interests. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates.

Ukraine conflict: What we know about the invasion

While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said. Mr Sullivan said Western leaders were completely united and would respond harshly to a Russian invasion with devastating economic and trade sanctions. "There is a risk for a full-fledged invasion," warned Mr Stoltenberg, but he added other threats were lurking too, "including attempts to topple the government in Kyiv." "From here in the Black Sea region, all the way to the Baltic, allies are stepping up to reinforce NATO's presence at this critical time," NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said from Constanta. But diplomats and government leaders have struggled to jump-start moribund talks to stave off war.

The logistics of training a “Citizen Army” are also formidable, according to one former Territorial Army (TA) soldier. “If https://euronewstop.co.uk/who-is-winning-the-war-in-ukraine.html are talking about mass mobilisation to defend the homeland, that is hundreds of thousands of people,” he said. Britain has also allowed ammunition supplies to dwindle to “dangerously low levels,” according to a Parliamentary Defence Committee report.

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A senior European Union official has denied member states are discussing financial coercion to force Hungary to agree on financing for Ukraine. Kara-Murza, who suffers from a nerve disorder after surviving two poison attacks, was jailed for 25 years last April for treason and spreading "false information" about the Russian war in Ukraine. Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year.

Meanwhile in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin told defence officials that in Ukraine he would “not give up what is ours”, while claiming the Russian military had momentum. Labour's Keir Starmer and many Conservative backbenchers have called for further military options to be explored. So far the UK government has sent troops (now withdrawn) to train the Ukrainian army, and supplied them with defensive weapons. The dependence of many European countries on Russian gas may also contribute to upward pressure on commodity prices as they seek alternative supplies from elsewhere.

Germany's pausing of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is perhaps the most significant step to punish Vladimir Putin because of the likely impact on the Russian economy. Unless Putin is doing all of this only to maximise his leverage in talks with the West. Putin's recognition of the breakaway republics effectively kills of the Minsk peace process. And that is a dangerous backdrop against which to have a blazing public row over who is to blame for the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Let's not forget that Russia and America have, between them, over 8,000 deployable nuclear warheads so the stakes here are stratospherically high. The old Cold War maxim of "MAD" - Mutually Assured Destruction - still applies.

  • One way to do that is with an armistice, a temporary agreement to cease military operations, but one that does not conclude the war decisively.
  • But the very premise of a post-Soviet Europe is also helping to fuel today’s conflict.
  • As long as Russia's potential invasion force remains massed on the borders then even the bustling Ukrainian capital Kyiv, and other cities, will not be safe from attack.
  • "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres.
  • He is once again a powerful politician – Vladimir Putin’s chosen ruler of the occupied territory that lies across the river from Kherson.

"Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border. And as we said before, we're in a window when an invasion could begin at any time," Mr Blinken said. In a demonstration of American commitment to NATO allies, the Pentagon is sending 3,000 more combat troops to Poland to join 1,700 already assembling there, a senior US defence official said. The official provided the information under ground rules set by the Pentagon. Russia is also massively boosting military spending in 2024, with almost 30% of its fiscal expenditure to be directed toward the armed forces.

The official, who was not authorised to speak publicly and did so only on condition of anonymity, would not say how definitive the intelligence was. US officials said the State Department would announce the evacuation of its embassy in Kyiv. "And that's what Putin wants, to play a strong enough game with gas supply and price that those countries give up supporting Ukraine." He adds that for countries previously more dependent on Russian energy - such as Germany and Hungary - the burden of sanctions may soon become too much. "But if you have a system that's increasingly oppressive with no opposition, you'll start to find small groups carrying out isolated attacks."

what happens if ukraine and russia go to war

But the country is the fourth largest recipient of military funding from the US, and the intelligence cooperation between the two countries has deepened in response to threats from Russia. But the very premise of a post-Soviet Europe is also helping to fuel today’s conflict. Putin has been fixated on reclaiming some semblance of empire, lost with the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin has said Ukrainians and Russians “were one people — a single whole,” or at least would be if not for the meddling from outside forces (as in, the West) that has created a “wall” between the two. Some preeminent American foreign policy thinkers argued at the end of the Cold War that NATO never should have moved close to Russia’s borders in the first place. But NATO’s open-door policy says sovereign countries can choose their own security alliances.

  • "Added to that are the recent border crisis involving thousands of migrants in Belarus, as well as Russia's backing of separatists in the Caucasus and elsewhere," he said.
  • Despite years of sanction-proofing, the longer the war, the worse the impact will be on the Russian economy.
  • Russia said it has destroyed more than 70 military targets in Ukraine.
  • Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority.
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Pub: 02 Feb 2024 09:13 UTC
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