https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbzKPGsW3Dg
Transcript:
Welcome to Pod Save America
I'm Dan Fefeifer
Back when I worked for Barack Obama on his campaigns and in the White House, whenever we faced a political crisis, when things felt like they were falling apart all around us, President Obama would call a strategy meeting
They would last all day
Sometimes they're at his house, sometimes they were in a nearby office, but every single time they would last hours and hours.
We get the whole gang together to try to figure out what went wrong and how we could fix it
We didn't answer every question
We always left the meeting with a plan
The conversations around the table focused my mind and made me smarter
And even as I have celebrated Democratic victories and touted Trump's declining poll numbers in recent weeks, I have had the sinking suspicion that too many people in my party are whistling past the graveyard.
Trump's blunders are masking the political crisis the Democratic party is in
To figure out how to get out of it, I wanted to have one of those strategic conversations like the ones I used to have in the Obama days
And there is no better person to have that conversation with than David Pluff.
He was Obama's campaign manager in 2008, his top political adviser in the White House during the re-election, my boss in both of those occasions, and was senior adviser to Kla Harris during the 2024 campaign
David is one of the smartest and most strategic people in Democratic politics, and I wanted to sit down with him and talk about these issues.
David Pluff, welcome back to Pot Save America. >> Always good to be with you, Dan
Go Sixers. >> Right
Exactly
Go Sixers
All right
So, you wrote an op-ed in the New York Times which got a lot of attention, pissed off some powerful people, and I recommend everyone read it, but I just want to give people a flavor of it so they because it's going to guide our conversation today.
Here's what you write
Right now, Democrats have no credible path to sustain control of the Senate and the White House
After the adjustments to electoral college map that most likely come with the next census, the Democratic presidential nominee could win all the states won by Kla Harris plus the blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and still fall short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
The point of your oped is that the Democratic Party is in crisis
What caused you to take these thoughts to the New York Times
Well, Dan, and for me, I mean, I spent a lot of time on the specifics, but the spirit of it is more important to me than any specifics, which is when you think about the Supreme Court, we could have two, three retirements over the next decade.
I think that the view that somehow once Trump leaves the scene, everything will return to normal
I think it's going to get worse after Trump, not better
the only antidote really is sustained democratic control um of all chambers, but particularly the president and the white house and I'm sorry, the the white house and the senate.
And when you look at just how few states were competitive in in a presidential race or the senate, the math is just unrelenting
Uh and what also guides my thinking on this is the Republican party right now is dreadful
They are despised by the American people
The only entity maybe more despised is the Democratic party
So when your opponent is uh in the shitterter, that's the time to kind of get out of the you're in and really uh you know give voters a sense of oh there's new people and there's new ideas and they seem different and they're willing to admit their mistakes.
There's clearly a huge opening here for us to rebuild our brand, our electoral performance
But if we don't do that, by the way, one thing I think about, you and I both live through uh Merrick Garland
Let's say we win the White House, but we don't have the Senate
Is there any guarantee like if Thomas or Alito uh something were to happen to them, they retired that we could confirm a Supreme Court justice
I wouldn't take that bet.
I I would assume no would be my guess. >> It's not right
So like so you can either complain about it, which we should do, or say, how do we make sure something like that doesn't happen so that more elections than not we have a chance to be 50 plus in the Senate uh and and hold the presidency for an extended period of time.
And I think if we do those things, we're probably going to like where we are in the House as well. >> So I think it's worth just dialing in a little bit on the electoral college point
We we've talked about the Senate
We'll talk about the Senate some more in this conversation, but electoral college as we sit here today, and these are all estimates, but we have a pretty good sense of where things are headed.
The most likely scenario is California, New York lose somewhere to be combined six to seven votes, and Texas and Florida gain somewhere six to seven votes
Which means that the map that we almost won with in 2016, we did win with in 2020, we came close to winning in 2024, those are all off the table.
You would have to win with a map that looked like Obama 2012
You'd have you really have to be competitive either in a whole swath of states in which we're not competitive or you have to be able to win Florida or Texas or both
Otherwise, there's just no really credible path to getting there on a regular basis.
Is that right? >> Absolutely
the blue wall uh doesn't get you there anymore, even with that uh second congressional district of Nebraska, which by the way, I assume they're going to change or try to again
So, yeah, I mean, we have to, you know, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, all critical
We have to keep trying to figure out how to get more competitive in Florida, eventually, you know, break their back in Texas, but we've got to be more competitive in more places.
And you saw in 24, um, you know, Nevada and Arizona weren't that close
you know, Georgia a little more competitive
So, the notion that somehow after 20, like Arizona and Nevada are going to be states that we win more often than not, I I don't think is true
We're going to have to really fight to make that true.
So, we've got to put more targets on the board
Um, and that should scare everybody that we could have a great electoral performance in 2032 as as we thought in this last decade and fall short
So, we've got to put more states in play
That's just the reality
and and we and I and I believe we have the opportunity to because I think some of the gains Trump made with non college voters, particularly of color, you see them fleeing him.
Doesn't mean we're going to get them back, but they're open to that
I think we've got the ability to do better uh in some rural communities, not by a lot, but by a few points
Clearly, you know, Kla Harris actually showed real strength uh with some, you know, college educated older white voters
So, I think we've got the ability to do that, but it's not something we can say it should happen.
It has to happen
It has to happen or we're going to have neither the Senate or the White House for the next decade
And it's not going to be like Mitt Romney in charge
It's going to be a more skillful, more palatable, but super scary version of Trump. >> And I think it's like there is this paradox we're all living in, which is the 2026 midterms look pretty good right now.
not as good as they did in 2018, but you know, it's it's a the House certainly is a map that is very winnable
The Senate map, while hard, looks better than it's looked in a long time
We have good candidates running in places, and we have some paths to get to 50 votes there, which seemed impossible a year ago
As you mentioned, the polls are pretty clear that Trump's dropped a lot.
And you know, the New York Times poll that came out earlier this week said, you know, very explicitly that Trump's numbers with the the coalition that powered a victory in 2024, young voters, particularly young men, Latino voters, uh, working-class, non-white voters, Trump's numbers with those groups now look exactly like they did in 2020 when he lost, not like when he won in 2024.
And that's all great news, but at the same time, we're looking at this problem where even in today's world, we are capped at like 53 Senate seats if we're lucky, you know, because we only have one
There's the only one Republican in a blue seat
There's only two Republicans in a purple seat
If you count four, if you count North Carolina state, we haven't won since 2008.
You know, it's just it's there's a very we have a low ceiling there
And then you look at 2028, like you could see a world where you could say a generic good Democrat can win the White House against the unpopular vice president to an unpopular president
Like you can see that path, but then that person's going to come in and have to win with a much bigger normally, as we know, your first president election, you get to a number.
In your second, you get reelected with a smaller number, and that smaller number is not going to work in 2032
And so the paradox here is things look good in the short term
In the long term, we have some pretty big changes we have to make in our party to be to have what you argue, which is sustainable control to actually stamp out MAC.
Like, this isn't ignoring all the problems Republicans have
It's that it's not when you're fighting against something that looks like the MAGA movement, you can't just swap power every four years
We've seen how damaging that can be
And so we are sort of in this like crisis mode that but it's a it doesn't feel that way in the moment but when you take a step back the party really has a ton of work to do which is why I think Europe it's important and probably kind of pissed off some people but let's begin with the party brand right this the where we are
right now the Democratic party brand is in the toilet it's at around the lowest level it's been in history and that's concerning for a lot of reasons but one reason is typically politics is seesaw one side goes down the other one goes is up
Trump has come down
We have not gone up.
What's your theory as to what's happened to the Democratic party
Because for the most of the 21st century, other than right a right like after 9/11, the Democratic party has been more popular than the Republican party
How do we get here? >> Yeah
So, just a second on on some what you just said
I mean, the Times poll is interesting.
I mean, Trump obviously doesn't like it
He's threatening to sue them on based on the poll
But if you look at all of his numbers, and by the way, I think one of the tasks for 26 is one, make every Republican running for office own all the downside
In a way, I think Trump historically has been stronger than a lot of his candidates.
Right now, I worry the opposite
You got to make these guys and women pay full price
But secondly, for us, yeah, 26 could be good, but given what you just said, we don't have a Senate race to lose or re or a House race we can waste
like we can't afford it
We've seen they by nominating a bunch of knuckleheads through the years have lost Senate races they should have won
We can't do that.
So, we have to maximize 26 as well
Like you're a big basketball fan
Like Michael Jordan never went into the halftime locker room when they're up six happy
Like why the aren't we up 12
Like I think we need more of that mentality
So, but that time sp was disconcerting because you'd think maybe the generic ballot should be seven, eight, nine points and it wasn't.
And if it's that high, by the way, we can definitely win the House with some margin, but also win the Senate in this tough environment, which I think should be the goal
I think with the brand, I think first of all, there's still a hangover from Biden, both him running and I think people's view that he mishandled the economy and the border.
Um, you know, he did a lot of great things obviously, but but right now voters are penalizing him
And I think the Democratic party, I think, kind of stood by and let that happen
I think there's a sense from voters, I'm just reporting what, you know, great researchers uh show us when they talk to voters, that we weren't as as as maniacally focused on lifting wages and helping people who are living their lives right now as opposed to we had I think people thought we were a little more ideologically focused
There's no
doubt that there was a sense from some voters that we are more focused on social issues as important as they are than the economy
Um and you know I think that uh we haven't had um you know at the national level um you know for some time kind of the exciting candidate you know Joe Biden won thank goodness Hillary ran a strong race Kamla did but we haven't had the Obama Clinton Trump a stride our party which becomes an avenue for people I think to come over to you.
So um I think the other thing I think you know mom Donnie is interesting I you've watched him closely as have I
This is another thing
I mean, I've seen focus groups where voters kind of say, "Listen, the Democrats seem like the taxes we pay, they just kind of think it's their money to spend
They don't accept any criticism of government.
They think all the answers are government." And you and I know a lot of the answers are
But what Mandami shows is even a social democrat can blow the whistle on government when it's doing dumb things
And I wrote about this some in the op-ed
I think Obama did a lot of this with some of our efforts
Clinton did.
really important for us as the believers in government to be the first ones say, "Hey, when a program's not working or there's fraud, um, we're going to blow the whistle on it
We're not going to reflexively defend." The other thing I'd point out, I I don't think we've walked the walk.
I mean, we criticize them for being anti-democratic, for being autocracy friendly, um, for not having any norms
But, you know, when we have a guy in Illinois retire from the House and he slides in at the 11th hour, his preferred um, you know, choice to replace him, you know, the leadership says, "Well, we're not going to criticize him.
" You know, even the delegate from the US Virgin Islands who got, you know, talking points from Jeffrey Epstein, we rally around
So, I think I get on the one hand there's a there's a view that the Republicans never criticize each other, which I actually don't agree with
I think they critic because I but like if we truly want to tell people we've changed that we are going to defend them that we're not going to defend any corruption we've got to be willing to call it out in our own ranks in my view.
Um and we have some fresh faces out there
I think Tyler Rico is running a really interesting race
Um obviously Diana Osborne's back in and I think is is doing really well in a tough place
So ultimately the solution to this is new leaders, new candidates and ultimately who our nominee is in 28 will determine so much not just about that election but the next decade.
We really have to get that right
Someone who's a great vote getter um and can win by enough as you said to give us a margin in the Senate
So I think all you have to do is listen to voters and they talk about what's wrong with the Democratic party
You get an earful
Now the good news is they say just as you know negative things about the Republicans but they're in charge.
So this is my concern is I I think it was a little bit of after 22
We had a better election. >> Hugely after 22
It's like the great sin of the party was after 22. >> It didn't carry forward
It was really because of dos
I think we could have a very good 26 but that doesn't mean we've healed any of our wounds.
And to me the tragedy would be if you know maybe we have a good 26
Maybe as you said we even win the White House in 28
But it's because uh we are the uh least worst option as opposed to some voters saying actually yeah I'm kind of done with MEAGA
Uh and you know this Democratic party or these Democratic candidates they seem a little bit different what they're talking about.
I think we clearly have to refresh our economic agenda centered around non-ol workers
Those are also the jobs probably least at risk with with AI in the near term until Musk gets all his optimist robots everywhere
So I think that anyway the way I always thought you and I you know went through the war together in 2012 and and one of the things we'd say is even though it was a tough economy and I think for most of 11 most observers thought we'd lose.
Every time we did focus groups with swing voters people were still interested in what Obama had to say
Their ears were open
And I think for a lot of voters right now they've closed their ears because they they they just don't believe in what we're saying
They need to hear new things, more compelling things, more honest things, more things comp connect connected to their lives.
And if they do that, given the weakness of the Republicans, I think we can really profit from it. >> Today's presenting sponsor is Simply Safe Home Security
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The important disclosure is acorns.com/cid. >> In in your piece, and this is the part that pissed off some people, got some members angry at you
You argued that Democrats running for office should call for new leadership in the House and the Senate.
Do you think Democrats really should ditch Jeff and Schumer in the lot? >> Well, listen, as you know, after the election, it's an inside game
And I would imagine both of those gentlemen will have uh, you know, the inside track to to leadership if we win back the House in her Senate
But that doesn't mean that a candidate, the way the way I always think about this, Dan, is if you're in a room of 150 people in central Iowa, okay, or in suburban Arizona and a House candidate or a Senate candidate's talking to a group of voters and you say, "Listen, I'm running
against Trump
I think what they're doing is harmful to the economy, to our country
There's a bunch of institutions that aren't delivering for people, but I also think my party has to change." Like, people are going to be nodding their heads, right
So, I would just say this.
Nancy Pelosi, who's one of the greatest leaders in the history of America, was always very free and open with candidates
You say what you have to say to win, even if they were critical of her
And you know, these positions aren't about any one person
You know, there's an existential uh thing hanging over us that we have to at least win one of these chambers.
I would argue two given some of the structural things we talked about
So, I think there'll be candidates out there that already are, you know, challenging leadership
I would suspect at the end of the day, if we're successful electorally, the current leaders will, you know, ultimately be the successful candidates.
I don't know if other people will run or not
As you know, that's still an inside game
But I guess my point is, Dan, we need candidates to just let it rip and kind of burn all the houses down because that's what voters want to hear. >> You're exactly right that if the Democrats take the House, Hakee Jeff is going to get reelected and probably should, right
That's your job.
Your job is to win the majority
You want the majority
That that's great
You know, I don't know what'll happen with Schumer
You know, that's that's that's probably like maybe a tougher bill there
I do think the candidates who run on this is really important
The candidates who run on I'm going to vote for someone else have to actually vote for someone else when they get there because otherwise you are making you're just like then you're just you're playing the game and you're going to look ridiculous.
But you actually have to follow through on because there's a bunch of people Platner said he's not voting for Schumer
Uh Mali McMurro and I think uh maybe I know Malik Moro maybe Abdul say others have said they won't support Schumer
There are some people saying that but then you actually gota you got to do it.
You can't then come here in the vote forum. >> Yeah. >> But you know there'll be a process and you know uh you know maybe multiple votes
We'll see who emerges
But I guess I think you know the most important thing in an election is to meet voters where they are to understand where they are their concerns
And I think that they're very concerned about Trump and MAGA the economy.
They're very concerned about you know Greenland
They're very concerned about a whole host of things
the ICE raids
Um, but you know, they're not sure that we're the remedy and I think candidates ought to understand that. >> One of the things you'll hear from when people like you and I have this conversation, and this happens to also pot all the time where we talk about the problems with the Democratic party or argue that Democrats should run against the Democratic party.
You'll hear from people in the party uh and you probably heard this after your oped that one of the reasons the Democratic Party brand is down is that the people who are most critical of the Democratic party are Democrats
Do you have any response to that? >> Well, Dan, I think, you know, people like you and I are kind of mostly irrelevant.
It's it's what the Democratic Party voters are saying
You know, they it's it's it's the general public, so swing voters for sure, uh, you know, express strong concern, but also Democrats
So, at the end of the day, um, I just think we have to be honest, and I think our strongest candidates historically, you look at Barack Obama, you look at Bill Clinton, you look at John F.
Kennedy, you know, on their side, Donald Trump, Ronald Reagan, these people who built electoral coalitions, you know, were pretty clear about while they were uh running against Republicans and running against problems in the country, they also wanted to change things about their own party
Um, and you know, I I think it's hard to argue that we don't have some form of market failure if you use that in a political context, which is voters right now for the most part have two choices.
That's it
They're dissatisfied with both choices
So, what if you strengthen your hand so they're slightly less dissatisfied with you while your opponent's still uh stuck in the gutter
So, I I just think that's not healthy
Um, and by the way, I think that's largely a social media very online discussion.
I don't think that's what real people out in the country are talking about
You know, if they actually support the Democratic party, they want it to be as strong as possible
Not to convince ourselves somehow we're stronger than we actually are
I want to get to 28 in the long term here in a second, but let's stick on 26 because that's sort of the wolf closest to the door here.
You know, in your piece, you argue that Democrat that we have to make Republicans own all of Trump's problems
Do you I think there's a bit of an internal debate
I'm having it within myself, too, about whether as a party we are too focused on Trump as opposed to Republicans because you can see this in the Wall Street Journal poll that came out about a week ago.
Trump's numbers are in the toilet on every issue, right
He's barely above water on border security and everything else underwater
But then when you ask people if they who do they trust more on inflation, economy, immigration, etc., a generic Republican in Congress or generic Democrat in Congress, they pick Republicans by pretty large margins.
And so I think we have this dilemma which is there is a short-term turnout advantage to making our race be about Trump
Like that will get our people fired up
That will get donations from grassroots donations
Um, but it has it does have some medium and long-term consequences for the fact that the guy's never on the ballot again.
Well, I'm glad you singled out some of those generic matchup questions with issues because it should scare the living daylights out of us. >> That's why the generic balance five, not eight
Right. >> Not right
So, I think that if you think about an incumbent House Republican or even a Republican running in an open seat or certainly uh you know Collins and Cruz uh and Rickettts, I think the task between now and November is to make them own factories closing people losing healthcare like you know starting in the
beginning of February a bunch of people who signed up on the exchanges aren't going to go through it because it costs so much because the Republicans make them own that make them own the tariffs and what that's done
So, I think that um you know, the way I think you bring Trump in that is maybe to say they've not stood up to Trump or they've supported Trump, but the most important thing is to make them own it.
So, if I had to, you know, say, "How do you spend $10 or 10 minutes?" You know, I'd spend seven or eight of those dollars or minutes making the case against that Republican elected official or candidate separate apart from Trump that they own this, you know, so that I think, you know, you know how these races are 26, even if we win back the House, you know, there could be 8, 10, 12 seats we don't win by a thousand or 2,000 votes.
If we don't win back the Senate, it could be close
So making them full pay full price
So those swing voters who go into the booth say this person is not separate from Trump
And here's the other reason this is important, Dan
By the summer and certainly by the fall, all of these candidates are going to be lying and talking about where they stood up to Trump or where they disagreed with Trump.
And the more that we lay that concrete now and through the course of the campaign, it'll be harder for them to do that
So, I'm concerned that some of these, you know, Republican candidates who are on the more skillful side of things will convince some of these voters, well, that's all Trump
You know, my guy or my woman tried to tried to basically stop him or had a different idea.
Does it affect your calculus at all that mo that the the Senate battleground is taking place almost entirely in states Trump won and the House battleground, as much as we'd like to think that this is a favorable territory for us, they're only I think it has four seats that have Republicans in districts that Kla Harris won.
There's not that many in districts that Trump won by five
like the true difference between like a narrow 2020 for GOP like majority and an actual you know real majority in the House you have to win Trump plus 7 plus 8 plus 10 seats and that that affect how you think about it or is a dissatisfaction with Trump among independents and this seven you know 3 to 7% slice of 20 24 Trump voters enough to put those districts in play that you can run against Trump there >> no I don't think so I mean I think particularly in those Trump 10 Trump 12 districts, Trump 8
You know, you've got
to put the Republican incumbent on trial and they have to own, you know, your energy costs are up, your health care costs are up, this big factory closed, you know, your paycheck's not going further and further enough
I think you've got they're the ones on the ballot, not Trump
And so I think you have to make it about them.
And and your point about these districts and the Senate is really important
Like this is hostile territory
So even though we have a very good environment, this is another reason I'm very focused on how do we maximize every vote, you know, with repair and refresh and reform of the Democratic offering because we're going into some deeply hostile places that we may be able to win just because Trump's so unpopular, people's economic concerns are so profound, but nobody should underestimate the degree of difficulty here
Uh this is going to be
really, really hard to win
But to your point where you could actually maybe get into the mid 220s or high 220s in the House, you're going to be winning a bunch of places that are pretty red. >> And I mean this this is also goes to the party brand question about why over the course of the next period here people have to fundamentally have a fundamentally different view of who Democrats are because otherwise we're renting these seats for two years in the House, you know, maybe four years of the if we can make it through the
presidential year
And these are one-term senators, right
This is a you if let's say Mary Pelola is lucky enough to get through in a tough race in Alaska or James Telerico or someone else can win in Texas or shared Browns in Ohio is they are winning because they are running in the right year with the right political environment and the next time they are up it's going to be in a presidential election year and look very different and so in 32 and so you to you guys actually have be able to keep these seats not rent them and that requires
like not winning on a sort of a black swan event of just the one year of, you know, inflation, Trump being unpopular, chaos in the streets, and you win
And so it's just like it really hammers the point that like the like you're winning despite the brand in 26, you have to to win again in 30 32 for these senators or, you know, or 28 30 for the House members.
The the brand has to look very different to people
It has to be palatable in these states, >> right
Or you're right, you're running and you give it right back
in 32
I mean, it's I think sometimes people think it's crazy to think beyond the next election, but we haven't done enough of that, which is >> what's the big thing here at play, right
And that's in terms of investing, infrastructure, but also understanding.
So, all you're trying to do is win the Senate, but you to your point, >> you've got to look down the road because let's say we win a bunch of these places, Ohio, Alaska, I mean, from from your lips to God's ears, that would be amazing
But then 32, let's say we win the White House in 28
So, you know, you have a Democrat running for reelection, tough map, uh, presidential year turnout, super hard.
So, that's the test, I think, is can we get to the point where year after year, cycle after cycle, we feel that we have a 50% chance at least to win
And right now, I think you'd say, of course not
I mean, we need to take, you know, we need to be gifted, you know, political tailwinds
And I just don't think that that is uh gonna save the country.
Uh when we look at the threat, I mean I you know, you think about the court like it's not maybe it's not likely
It's also not crazy
Like we could have an 8-1 court by like 2040 if we don't have sustained political party. 8-1
And that's almost like Katie shut the door time. >> As you think about the strategy for this cycle, and I've had this debate with people in the House leadership.
Uh I can't tell if they agree with me or not, but do you think the party needs a their version of contract for America or something that you know the six for six from 2006 like a a policy agenda of here are the things that we are going to try to do if we win or that we you know that we stand for if we win like do we actually need a positive agenda or is that giving the argument against what you hear from a lot of people and a lot of people at high levels of power is Trump is failing he is losing think by putting our own agenda out there, we're
giving them a target uh and making it more of a choice than a referendum and we really want it to be a referendum
What do you think? >> Well, it's interesting
So much of this originates back to the 94 race and the contract with America
What people forget is heading into the election, the contract for America was a very minor part of that election.
But as you know, when you win election, you got to tell the story about why you won
So I think we ought to also be grounded in the fact that 94 those results which were historic at the time we've had landslides since um was not about the contract with America
And so now what's interesting is um I guess as I think about this question the most important people to answer the question are the candidates running in tough house and senate races.
And my suspicion is they would rather not have a national Republican versus national Democratic campaign in part because Trump and the Republicans are unpopular
Democratic brands unpopular
I can be something different
I don't want to be tied to the party
So uh you know to the extent the House and Senate leadership are thinking about this, I would be in dialogue not with my colleagues uh in the caucus rooms.
I would be talking to the vulnerable candidates uh you know in in House and Senate races and get their view
My guess is they would say uh it's not helpful
Um I think I'll do better kind of flying my own flag than being tied at all to a National Democratic Party flag
But that's my view
It's a tough call. >> Yeah.
So I I like my mind is not made up on it
I think the counterargument is one if you're running in a very red seat, you should you should run against it
Like that's also helpful
Um >> is no one has any idea what we stand for with we live in this massive communications vacuum
I mean, if you talk to voters, like ask them when the last time they saw a Democrat who was not AOC or Mam Donnie or maybe Bernie speak like and not that there's any problem with them speaking.
I think that's great
But just very few of them actually break through
Many of them couldn't pick Schumer or Jeff out of a lineup. >> It's just that like the communications asymmetry is so big >> is one the other and so having something that that you know there putting throw weight behind a message about something we stand for.
Like I'm not saying that you should put like Medicare for all in here or but like an idea of you know maybe you could I don't know but just the the the ideas that you would have is like a handful of affordability ideas and a and some reform ideas like this is the part where I think probably get the most push back from the leadership is I think the huge error you know there's two I think there's three sins that have put us in this place of our own doing some of it's some of the reason why the party brands in the toilet is circumstantive
being present at the
wrong time
Um, right during COVID and during sort of the when people were ready to get out of COVID but could not yet get out fast enough and then inflation
But it's it's Biden running again, right
And then everything that came with Biden's inability to unwillingness to communicate basically throughout his entire presidency in a way that voters actually heard.
The second is misreading the 2020 election to think it meant that people that Biden's victory was a validation of institution norm norms in the pre-Trump political system when it was just like it was much more it was not that at all
Um it was just it's it was more rejection of the of the system than anything else and that people hate the political system and we became defenders of the political system in a very dangerous way.
And the third one is misreading the 2022 midterms as we're talking about to as a validation of where Democrats were as opposed to like a blip in time
On the second one, I do think that one thing the party has to do maybe this is what the c the good candidates will do which is also fine is actually and this part part of this is running against the party like that that gets into that but also it's how do you get money out of politics
How do you get lobbyists out of politics
How do you deal with corporate power in politics
like the you know the most
basic thing we can't get we have been failed to do for years now stop members of Congress from trading stocks like that sort of stuff could be part of an agenda that actually helps now I obviously my mind is still not made up here but I think it is like that's that dilemma is do you leave a vacuum for the other side to define or do you give your or do you have have a like a readymade answer for what you would actually do which I know is hard because you can't do any of the things if you win and they have the white house right that is the
challenge >> well and one I don't know this is right
I mean, maybe it doesn't have to be, you know, a comprehensive agenda that that tackles and tickles every issue
Maybe it's >> No, it shouldn't be
Maybe it's on corruption and may so our House and Senate candidates most of who have compelling ideas around this you know can say I've talked to the House and Senate leadership and they say yeah if we win back day one banning stocks crypto you know uh you know no lobbying like oh this is a place by the way where
I think voters also they don't trust somehow that we're going to be different because we've defended a lot of this stuff like I think on sort of anti-corruption stuff you can't go far enough and I think our candidates for the most part will go very far on this
This is where it would be helpful if they can say no, no, it's not pie in the sky
There's going to be a vote.
So, you know, it could be maybe it's not, you know, our agenda on economy, on healthcare, on education, on immigration, on corruption, maybe
But if not, there may be pieces of that that are helpful to the candidates that don't cause them problems. >> The hard part with the the corruption stuff, because this is another battle I've been having with people for basically since 2020, because I' I've always believed that corruption is an important part of the story we should be telling.
But then you get you talk to pollsters and they'll show you voters either don't care about as much as you think they do or more importantly don't trust Democrats to do anything about it
And this is a place and we'll talk about this a little when we get to 28, but this is a place where biography you the message and the messenger do it like like I would imagine Mamani can come across as a reform oriented candidate because he is an out he's seen as an outsider to the system.
AOC could your typical, you know, maybe Platner could, maybe some of these other candidates could, but the establishment Democratic politician is not going to be trusted to all of a sudden start caring about, you know, members of Congress leaving to become lobbyists, right
And then coming back, using their fore privileges to come back and twist arms like like that is that that's that is part of I guess that is part of the challenge.
You need the right candidate to be able to pull that off credibly. >> Well, an outsider candidate, though
See, I mean, I think that and and I don't think it should be based on Trump
You can say, listen, we've seen a bunch of corruption, but you know, this predates Trump
It's Republicans and Democrats
It's Democrats
And so, >> and I think what what it is is it it goes beyond just do people think that's important to them
And I agree, it's not important as how far their paycheck's going.
But it also says this is an outsider
This is someone who's willing to challenge their own party, the status quo
So, there's a credentiing thing
I agree
someone who's a longtime House member running for the Senate is not going to be as credible as someone who's basically a frustrated citizen saying they've had enough and they're going to be basically a tribune for people on on on that issue.
And I've mentioned Platiner a couple times only because you could there are other candidates too, but he's just sort of become the prototypical outsider Democratic candidate
Dan Osborne, who is not actually a Democrat, but is another example like that
And there a bunch of people bunch of house member you know house candidates who fit that you know you know the people running who the the woman running in the fire the the fire general or fired military officer who's running in uh South Carolina one you get a whole bunch of
ones like that but um like those are the sorts of candidates >> pods of America is brought to you by strawberry me you know that feeling when a new year starts and you tell yourself okay this is the year work is going to be great and then two weeks later you're already burned out again it's like they can read my mind yeah we've been there if work left you drained last year.
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Make sure you enter our show name after checkout so they know we sent you helixleep.com/crooked. >> All right, let's piv in in the long term here
But before we get to 28 because I know this will be but just so we must suffer a little bit.
I want to go back to 24 a little bit because I think there are some lessons, you know, just are I I've always found this is a benefit of being working in Democratic politics before Obama is I always learned more from the races I lost
So I had a lot of opportunities to learn
Um you know and I more than the ones you win because when you win you think everything you did was correct.
And when you lose you think you actually picture it
And so you and I we we talked on the on this podcast you know couple weeks after the election
My brain had not yet process it
I can't imagine yours had either coming right off that campaign for 100 days however long you were there
But now with the passage of time, are there things when you look back at that race, and I don't mean the things that I think were beyond the campaign's control, like the amount of like Biden's decision to run the the the short campaign or even because I and I say
this because she wrote about in her book, Kla Harris's own unwillingness to separate from Biden in the sort of dramatic way a lot of voters want to do
Are there things like from the campaign strategic execution messaging playbook you look at that you say I wish we' done that differently or not that it would have been decisive but that like now that you've seen how it played out that makes you sort of question maybe how you've thought about politics or how we should do things differently going forward.
Well, I think um you know it always sounds defensive to to start here, but I I do want to start here, which is because I you know, I've thought a lot about this
I know you have
Like could we have won the race
Uh and and I don't think even if a bunch of decisions had made been done differently by Kell, I'm not sure it could.
As close as it was, it was still a lot of votes and the atmosphere was terrible for a Democratic nominee
If Joe Biden had got out, not in 24, in 23 and we'd had a full primary, I think whoever came out of that race would still have been the underdog given the fact that on election day 50% plus in every battleground state gave Trump a positive approval in the economy and that's what mattered to voters.
I'm not sure, but they would have been more fully formed
They would have, I think, had an easier way of showing where they would have disagreed with Biden
um you know as you know in presidential campaign you know you want to get your biography fully in there and you've got your e economic and your healthcare and your contrast you know and that was all condensed so I I'm not sure by the way whether it was Kamla or someone else who came out of that primary I still think you probably would have given Trump the advantage given all >> I do 100% agree with that
but I think that's the thing that would have made a difference so I'm not sure there's anything to decisive I mean I look back you know after the first debate which was such a big moment for for Harris we said we want to debate again I think we should have said, "We'll see you in two weeks on Fox." He might still not have debated, but we should have been more aggressive about having another big moment or two.
Um, you know, he she worked at McDonald's, he didn't, he had the McDonald's amendment, we didn't
I certainly regret that
You know, understand we do live in that kind of world where interesting moments and visuals, even if they're kind of substanceless, but they can be symbolic, matter
But the big thing for me is we could have used another moment or two.
But I'm not sure at the end of the day just given the headwinds there and I think you know that's why um when we spent time with voters you know it's hard sometimes I think for Democrats to understand this like the threat of Trump's return is so real to us and voters were like I'm not that really worried about him
I mean let me first of all the economy was better when he was president.
All these Democrats are talking about democracy is a threat, but we still have democracy
And you'd say, "Well, Trump January 6th and Trump, well, he left." And I was a little surprised with those young voters
They'd say, "And you guys didn't even have a contest." Like for me, it might have seemed an inside baseball that okay, Biden left Harris.
They're like, "Fuck you guys
Don't lecture us." So, I think that there was just a bunch of stuff even beyond inflation and concern
But yeah, I think there's some things I think that, you know, there was a great team, you know, working on social media, on Tik Tok, on YouTube and Instagram
But I think it's fair to say that it just comes more naturally to Trump.
And I think that's, by the way, th those are mediums, not message, not messenger to your point, not who the candidate is
That's still more important than how you get the message out
But I think we will be very well served in 28 if our presidential nominee is someone who wakes up every day and thinks about the campaign through the president of Tik Tok, Instagram yields, YouTube, maybe a little Reddit.
By the way, that's hardly anybody in our party right now
I mean that yeah I wanna I want to get to that for sure because I think I mean this goes back to both the leadership question to the house the house and senate leadership question because one of the things you hear about them is you hear one of the criticisms you get of Jeffre and uh and Schumer is that they're not great communicators right that they're not natural they're not you know they can be I think they can be fine at times but that's like it's not they are not when you're listing the
great communicators in a party you're never putting them on the list now I think that this is indicative of the way politics has changed because worked for Dick Gart when he was the House minority leader
I worked for Tom Dash was a Senate minority leader
They're both, I would say, with all due respect to them, fine communicators.
Give a good speech, fine
But not if you were listing the best communicators in the party at the time, they probably they weren't at top of the list
It's I guess politics become much more performance now, right
Like would you think about those like if you were picking a new leader would communicate like we'll get to president in a sec but for a leader like would you think that their ability to communicate is as important as their ability to hold the caucus together or count votes or something like because Nancy Pelosi greatest speaker of all time that was
like she did not spend a lot of time communicating publicly she did most of her work behind the scenes you know >> it's a great question you had the jobs change now I think Dashel and Gart were both examples though maybe they weren't at the top of the list of great historical communicators But they were pretty good and they could go anywhere and talk to anyone, right
I I don't think that's the case right now.
I still think at the end of the day, the most important thing is to be an exquisite leader
Um to know where your votes are, to be able to cut good deals or not good deals and stand and fight
Pelosi again is the best example of this
So I don't think you should choose a leader
Uh I wouldn't put communication skills at the top of the list because it's become a lot more important though
It just has.
Uh and so even if it's not you to think about communications first to think about okay how are we going to get our message out um how do the people who we need to persuade in election how are they living their lives and are we reaching them I so so yes ideally we'd have leadership in Washington that was both skilled backroom negotiators took care of their members um uh had backbone of steel and were good communicators I don't think what will work is like the Madison Cawthorne approach which is you're just a good communicator and you suck at the
actual job, but you have to pay more attention to that and even if it's not you as the the prime communicator, you need to think a lot about that
So, I it has changed a lot
Um, but at the end of the day, I think it's less about the specific people than I think just back to this question about should candidates call for new leadership.
I just think there's a hunger out there for massive change and it's it's 360deree change and I think the candidates who embrace that will probably be the most successful
But again, back to your question of, you know, let's say the Democrats decide to have an agenda
Um, maybe it's every issue, maybe it's just a couple of issues.
You know, how are you going to communicate that
Who's going to communicate that
Um, how loud are you going to be
Like these are really important questions
So, I think there's, as you know, um, you've spent a lot more time thinking about this than I have
Every week it gets harder to reach audience
So, and I think that, you know, it it again starts with messenger and message.
Without that, it's But if you're not delivering message and listen, it's hard
Listen, you and I came up in politics where if you had something to say about healthcare or the economy or corruption or foreign policy, be like, well, let's put the policy together and where are we going to give a speech and who are we going to give the exclusive interview to and what press conference.
And what's crazy is all that should be at the bottom of the pile
Now, it's like what's my Tik Tok play
What's my real, you know, what's my visual representation of that
you know, which influencers am I talking to
And that for people who've come up in a different era, that's like rewiring of the brain.
And I'm not sure most people can do it, you know, and this is another reason why we need younger candidate
Why do we need younger candidates
Well, one, politically, I think would be helpful to us, but they also understand how people are living their lives in terms of communication
So, from a political campaign angle, it's just going to be much more native and much more genuine, and you're going to wake up every day seeing the world through that.
I also think substantively, you know, if you're 80 years old, it's almost impossible to know how a 22-year-old person is living, wants to live what their dreams are like
And so Rahm Emanuel's call like to have everybody, you know, can't be served after 75, you know, to me makes a lot of sense, you know, and I know there's exceptions to that.
Pelosi, you know, I mean, she's 80, whatever, and, you know, no one can hang with her
So, I get that you would be losing some of that, but I think generally that's right
both politically but also substantively. >> The communication thing is interesting because I'm assuming that electability is going to be a huge driving conversation in the 28 primary.
Obviously we, you know, everyone's afraid to lose
They want for good reason, right
The stakes are so high for the country, for the world that you want to get it right
And now anyone who thinks they have any idea what actually makes someone electable in this day and age has no idea what they're talking about.
Um it's just like after >> Yeah, we should have some humility, right
Like I always say that uh the protottypical in when we came out of the 2004 election the candidate every day you go to any collection of Democratic operatives or donor thing and like how do we can't lose again
How do we win in '08? >> We need a governor or a senator from a red state
I work for Evan Bay.
I work for a senator from Ev from a red state
And I mean like this blows people's minds now
tell that Mark Warner, who was just recently been elected governor of Virginia at the time, was the toast of the town
He's who everyone was trying to get in with
He decided not to run ultimately
But so we all believed that, right
Everyone believed the conventional wisdom was like white male Democrat from a red state.
We ended up nominating Barack Hussein Obama from the south side of Chicago via Indonesia and Hawaii like and then he wins the >> forget the Madrasa and the all of that like it's going to change but the but I think electability will be top of mind
It's why Biden won the 2020 primary
I think in that question of electability, it's not just are you, you know, what state are you from
What is your bio
You know, how does it look on paper
It's can you actually communicate
Can you go into all the the hostile places and deliver your message
Can you hang
and have a cultural conversation on podcasts that resonate with young voters
Can you do you have a like uh capacity to get your message out
Are you to your point like digitally native
Do you actually understand how the medium works
Which that does benefit your like that's a big part of the conversation as you look at this 28 field right now.
I'm not asking you to pick a candidate
Do you see candidates who have that capacity to actually get the message out
Because even if they're not going against Trump and I'm uh it's still a media environment that tilts very far right
It's much easier for Republican to get their message out
By the time we get to 28, they're going to control most of the major media outlets in this country, several networks, the you know, pro Trump billion cover the Washington Post and every single social media platform of consequence will be owned by a proTrump billionaire from
Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, uh Tik Tok
Um so like do you see anyone out there who you think is showing the chops to do that
Well, first of all, yeah, the ecosystem is completely uh unbalanced and and they just have command and control from television to radio to blogs to most importantly social media that drive narrative.
We don't have that
Um I listen I would you know Twitter obviously Musk's you know that's a toxic wasteland that's less a business and more of an ideological mission
I still think, you know, despite the the foot playing that's happened, you know, whether it's YouTube or Tik Tok or Instagram, those are businesses, right
And I think Democrats can use them.
I don't think there's going to be uh uh dial turning there to suppress this, but we need to maximize that
So, listen, this is less about 28
And and I just won before, we have no idea what the Democratic Party primary voters are going to be looking for in the first quarter of 28
No idea
and we have even less of an idea about what general election swing voters will be looking at in the fall of 28.
So I think you're right and that may be very different iterations of that political lifetimes between now and then
You know obviously Newsome someone I think who's shown real aggression around social media
I think you know Steve uh you know uh Andy Basher's been all over podcast has his own you know uh you know I think a lot of the governors are leveraging the platforms uh in smart ways.
I think everybody can learn from Donnie in terms of how he's driving message not as a candidate but now as a mayor like Dan Luri the same thing by the way I don't think this is good for our country but if you're an elected official now particularly an executive you know it's all day long storytelling you just have to do that I don't think that's good by the way and I think we should audition our presidents much differently than we have and certainly will this time which is who's the best performer but that's what we have uh the biography is important their ideas are
important The timing, do they fit
The timing is important
I don't want to say it's all about performance, but that performance is really important, which as you know, having worked in the White House on the really dark days and moments, how you perform is less important than the decisions you make
We don't really audition for that, sadly.
But I think that um so I I see some Democrats and the good thing is it seems like a lot of people are experimenting, but we have to get to the point where our standard bearer and most of our candidates, they just wake up every day in the world, they think about how am I gonna drive a message
How am I going to make my opponent pay for something
It's not about a speech.
It's not about an interview
It's about, you know, this multi-platform approach
And as you know, they all need some distinction in how you deal with them
And this is why I think the most important people in campaigns going forward are going to be, you know, 22, 23, 24, 25 year old uh creators who understand these platforms inside and out.
And they should be given real seats at the decision-making table
In my view, >> as I look at this field, I can see and I like a lot of these people politically and personally
We've been around long enough
We know a bunch we know a bunch of them now
They have a lot of them been on the show. >> I see lots of people who could win in a good political environment in 2028.
Like I think that's an I really do believe that's a nomination you're going to want to have
um given Trump's unpopularity, the process by which they're going to end up with JD Vance uh as her nominee who is quite dangerous, but also I think has plenty of flaws and is not wearing well with voters.
Like there are these um the Sarah Longwell put out some focus group results today which showed that uh the only thing that Gen Z men wanted less than JD Vance was uh for the United States to invade Greenland
like they just like he does not he has uh he has Trump's MAGA beliefs uh but not the charisma that helps you charisma.
Um but >> you know still it's going to be a piece of it's a danger but so I can see a lot of people who can win that race. >> What I'm struggling with is to truly succeed to actually defeat maggots and not just hand the White House back and forth is you have to change the political alignment
You need a transformative candidate.
Now the primaries tell us a lot
the people you think are going to be great like on the Republican side, Ronda Santis and in this election, Scott Walker 2012 can blow up in their face
We've seen that on our side over the years
People who look great on paper, you know, barely making it out the starting gates.
But I don't it's hard to see like the candidate who can truly achieve a lot of what you're talking about is an outsider and there's not an obvious outsider in this mix, right
They're all everyone
If you go through the list of expected candidates, none of these people have announced, but we all expect they'll run.
Nuome, Pritsker, Whitmer, Shapiro, Basher, you know, I'm sure I'm forgetting others, but lots, you know, Mark Kelly said he's thinking of running now
These are all establish GGO
These are all establishment democratic politicians like and I believe our strongest candidate to who truly would have a chance to reset the party, reset the political alignment for a generation of this country who could do for the Democrats what Obama did for the Democrats or what Trump has done for the Republicans has to be an outsider.
Like am I pining away for something that can't happen here
What do you think? >> Well, that's a great question, Dan
Um, are you thinking a particular outsider or two by the way? >> No, I mean I look I think I mean I don't have a good answer to this right from the people and I don't agree with this one per se but a lot of people on the right on the center right of the party like they throw Mark Cuban's name out there because he's that's sort of like our Trump version only in the sense that he's a businessman who's very good with
the media uh and is a reality TV star
You know the other one you hear, you know, more from the like resistance left is would John Stewart run, right
But so I don't have the I don't have a good answer for that
I mean, honestly, I'm not arguing for this per se, but the politician within our party who has the best biography to run for president and the best communication skills is AOC, right
She is an outsider, bartender, and she can communicate with the best of them.
I don't think she's like I have no indication she's actually thinking of running, but like if you were saying like what is our version of Obama was elected official, but he'd been an elected official such a short period of time that he wasn't defined by that, you know
It's like we just I don't I don't see that person.
So I'm like keeping my eyes open for who that could be because people weren't talking about Obama actually people were talking a lot about Obama at this point in 2006 you know the relevant point in the cycle but they weren't seriously think he was not thinking he was going to run like who were like is there someone out there that we're not thinking of who could get in the mix
Well, so first of all, I mean, my hope is that we have some of the Cubans and Stewart's run in part because I hope this primary is big and messy and tough and hard because I think
if our nominee has to survive the toughest obstacle course pro possible, um that person will be stronger and it might even be someone who you'd say on paper you don't think has the kind of reach to really expand the electorate in our coalition
Maybe if they survive that primary, you know, oftentimes the people who win, they don't just come out whole, they come out strengthened by the primary
I think Trump did.
I think Obama did, right
So I think just to by the way, the flip side is people who look like tigers on paper like Dantis, like John Glenn, like Walker, you know, they get chewed up in their political graveyard
So it works both ways
So I think we should have outsiders run
Um, you know, listen, I don't know what AOC is going to do.
Uh, and I understand the conventional wisdom would be, well, you know, she would get demolished in a general election
I'm not so sure about that
I mean, >> I'm not either. >> Uh, she's an outsider
And by the way, talent matters
Talent. >> Talent
Again, back to like I sound like a super luxury old person
Like, >> I wish I wish we elected presidents based on their talent to run the situation room and like work with Congress, but we don't.
So, the ability to communicate, inspire, reach, um, handle crisis um, in your campaign is so important
She's clearly got that
Um, I would say, you know, based on prior election history, and by the way, that doesn't mean anything in a presidential election necessarily, but like, you know, Basher's overperformed a lot
Shapiro's overperformed.
All those Michigan candidates have overperformed
GGO overperformed
So there are some people in those races in those states who showed the ability to outperform the sort of Democratic average
That doesn't mean that translates to a general election because I think in a general election, yeah, profile background matters, but it's really that talent.
I mean, you know, you've looked a lot at this
I I just it's you can't overstate it enough
These elections are decided by people who pay little to no attention to politics
They don't seek out information
You got to find them
And the way you find them is through compelling moments uh and genuine moments.
Some of them plan, most of them not
And so that's what we need in our nominee is someone, yes, who can who can obviously secure the nomination, build confidence in the party, build a great organization, have the financial resources, but has that athletic ability to capture people's attention whose attention doesn't want to be captured
And the primary in part is for that.
And so you're right on paper, I don't think we got a bunch of people
The other thing, Dan, is I'd be surprised, you and I are political veterans, that there won't be two or three people that run that you and I would not name right now. >> Yeah, that's my hope. >> And I hope that's true
I hope that's true
I agree very much with you.
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That's squarespace.com/crooked. >> So talent, electability, communications dictate who wins the primary
The other thing that dictates the primary is the calendar.
Right now, you know, in our minds, we have we because it's all it has always been thus that we would go Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina
That would be it
Uh that's how we've done it
There is currently no calendar
For the first time ever, there is not there is nothing to operate
Biden changed it to South Carolina first, then didn't have a primary.
Do you have a view on what the calendar should be? >> I have some thoughts about the principles
Um, okay. >> Now, I I think there's been I think there's been 12 states, right, that have uh basically submitted an application
So, you should ignore the other 38
It is these 12 that will make up the early states.
So my principles are the past shouldn't matter, history shouldn't matter, relationship shouldn't matter given the existential nature of what's in front of us
We should have a calendar that we think gives us the best opportunity to produce the strongest nominee to win a presidency
So that would mean to me I would make sure that the first four all battleground states.
Um you and I know the value
Why do I want to do that
You get exposure in those states
You build up an organization in those states
but also the nominee gets comfortable in those states
So other than if Kla Harris runs, none of these candidates know much about these states
By the way, how much better of a general election candidate was Barack Obama having spent all that time in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada
He knew the people.
He knew the reporters
He knew the media markets
Like he knew the economy
So with all due respect to, you know, you and I have deep love for Iowa and for South Carolina, I I would not have a non- battleground state
And and the good thing is you've got, you know, Georgia and North Carolina both want to be battleground uh early.
So does Arizona and Nevada
So does Michigan
Northeast
Our home state Delaware actually demographically would be a great place to start actually
Um but I think New Hampshire probably is the other one in that region
And I would probably start relatively small to big so that you give candidates the opportunity to compete in a state that's not overwhelming in size or expense.
I also think you should give a lot of thought to what comes after the first four because it maybe we have a political athlete who emerges who wipes the floor with everybody like Trump did back in 16 and they're going to be the nominee after the first four
In a way the calendar wouldn't matter there other than it helps you for the general election.
So I think the calendar choice should be how does it help you win the general election
How do you put together a good test for the candidates
But then what comes right after is important
Like I would make sure New York's relatively early if you can do that
Like why New York
New York's a tough place to compete and you want to put people through their paces.
You know, Texas, some of these places that we want to reach
So, but the most important thing for the DNC rules committee is these first four
So, for me, um, as hard as it is sometime, we should not worry at all what's happened before, who's done what, who has relationships, what is the most ruth ruthlessly uh non-emotional surgical thing we can do.
And the other thing about it is it's not a one-way door
If we want to change it in 32, we change it in 32 because the roster of battleground states almost certainly will change as it always historically has done
So I would go all battleground states early
Um they're already going to make sure there's geographic diversity.
Um but you know uh those are all states listen and ethnic diversity
Um so um that's my view of it
And you know, again, somebody who just has momentum, who kind of overwhelms the field, they'll win regardless of the calendar
But if we have, you know, if we ever The other thing I'd say is South Carolina historically, other than in 24 when we didn't have a contest, has been the gateway to the nomination.
And uh other than I think 04 when Edwards won because he was kind of, you know, North Carolina guy
And why is that
because once you come out of the early states, you know, the candidate who wins the plurality of the African-American vote is going to be our nominee
So, I still think having a southern state as that last one into the rest of the uh nomination process is important.
Now, in my view, it would be Georgia or North Carolina
Um uh but but we'll see
I mean, I think that that's important
So, that to me is another rule of principle
But to me, the inviolent thing is you just got to put blinders on
don't worry about uh what's happened
You know, New Hampshire's always had this South Carolina like what's the right thing to do to produce the strongest Democratic nominee to advantage that person so we have the best chance not just to win the presidency in 28 as important as that is, but to do it with some margin so we
begin to build this electoral coalition that can be sustainable and and ultimately extinguish the MAGA threat
Yeah, that to me I 100% agree that this the best idea I'd ever heard was from Kevin Cheeky Bloomberg Sky which was you would just take the four closest states from the previous election and do them in the you know so in this case it would be Wisconsin Michigan right or Arizona whatever it is >> so that violates the geographic thing but that's a fine idea right >> but the but the basic principle here is
battle is you have the organizing in the primary will help you in the general And because of changes in the electoral college map since 2012, all of the uh Iowa and South Carolina are not battleground states anymore
And so they should be we should be able to get to place where we could compete in either of them.
But like I remember like being, you know, obviously I spent a lot of time in Iowa in 2008
We had, you know, the best organizers in the Democratic party were in Iowa organizing that state with an inch of its life, right
Every voter, every community, you know, we knew who they were
you could get it in I was there in 20 in 20 uh you know doing podcasts and covering the the caucuses and then when I I flew out the next morning a bunch of those organizers were on my flight to go to the next state and they were never going to return though they were going to close
those offices they were going to leave and so to spend all millions of dollars and all this time and and money and energy to organize a state that you never return to seems like just a waste of resources
So getting those battleground states makes like a a ton of sense to me
Yeah
And and again, I think the the voters, whoever is our nominee, will have competed in those states, spent a lot of time doing social media interviews, running ads, so you get a head start on your definition.
But also, I'll just repeat this candidate thing
Even though our our presidential campaigns have become more national, even though we have an electoral college, your comfort and skill and understanding of these places that will determine the presidency are important
And if you've spent a bunch of time in there, you know, you're a governor or senator or an outsider, you know, in your state, you don't know these states.
But if you've spent a lot of time campaigning there, you'll be a better candidate
Um, and so that's another, I think, principle in terms of why it it ought to just be battleground states, first four
And uh, again, that doesn't have to be something that's a generation
We can change it if we need to as battleground states change.
The last thing I want to get to is one of in your oped one of the things you brought up was um the Democrats need to talk about AI
The AI is a huge issue
We need a position on AI
You had Chat GBT write a uh political ad about uh AI that was actually quite good
I tried to get uh another uh AI tool to do the actual visuals of the ad
Not so good.
So maybe the the writers of political ads are are in grave danger
Maybe the uh the actual cinematographers are okay for the short term, but >> they have another cycle anyway. >> Yeah, at least you maybe I mean these things are moving so fast you might be able to keep your job through 26 28 you might be But like AI is the most important technological, economic, cultural, psychological, social issue of our time.
You know the party, my view is in the party has been bizarrely quiet on it with some exceptions
uh Republicans have actually been much more vocal and been been Republican governor particularly have been more vocal critics of Trump's uh the Trump's David Saxs let him cook policy of no regulation but to the extent we have you know the extent the the Democrats talk about it's mostly people who are doing like bans on data centers um where do you think the party comes down on here do you have a view of what that messaging or policy position should be
well first of all I just find it bizarre because I would even say, yeah, David Sachs and and the Trump administration, but generally we're not having a debate about the thing that's going to have the biggest impact on the country for decades
Like, it's insanity
And I think voters express that.
They're like, "This seems like it's just happening to us." By the way, they feel like social media happened to them
They didn't have any say in it
Now, this is even bigger and it's happened to them
So, listen, AI is here
Everyone's using it
There's a lot of benefits in terms of healthcare hopefully and education, all sorts of things.
Um, so it's not a pro AAI anti- I just think given that the Trump administration, a lot of Republicans, it's basically a green flag, no questions asked
And by the way, you know, Elon Musk, who's probably the most prominent outside Republican now, is out there saying there will be no jobs
Working will be optional
Everyone can like plant flowers and what a great life that will be.
Like people are like, "Fuck you." Like it's not realistic
So, I think that we're Democrats should say, "Listen, we need to be China
We want to be the leader
We've we've uh always benefited from leading technological revolutions and change
We want to do that here." Um, we just want to have the right kind of rules and transparency and the right kind of discussions about what kind of economic transition, how do we have to think about changing our education system so people aren't spending hundreds of thousand dollars for degrees that are unemployable
Like,
so I just think we need to lift our voice now
Uh, it doesn't have to be against AI
It needs to be we need to have the right discussion about regulation, around transparency, about the adjustments we need to make, but also make the Republicans pay a price for asking none of those questions because I think voters um you know, I see this in research.
I'm sure you see this in research
Um you know, they're getting more and more concerned at a time, by the way, where they're already economically worried
So they think things are going poorly and now they got this weighing over them
you see with a lot of parents of schoolage kids, you know, they're worried their kids aren't learning, that that they're not going to learn deeply, that they're too reliant on AI
We have the mental health crisis.
So, I think for us, I think candidates should lean into it and say, if I'm elected, I'm going to put a lot of thought to how we handle this
Not in a way that like hurts us competitively
Um, uh, still allows us to flourish, but, you know, this could kill lots of jobs
This is changing education, by the way.
This is changing how people uh you know deal
We already have what half of men under 30 have never asked a woman on a date
More and more of them are going to have relationships with chat bots
Like this is big stuff
So uh to me there's an opening for leadership that's very much connected to the economy you want to build.
And I think you know I'm not saying it's going to be the leading issue in 26
I think it will be an issue
I think by 28 it could be the dominant issue or one of them
And this is a place where JD Vance in particular is deeply exposed and I think could really pay a price by 28
Uh if people's senses this has happened way too fast
Um no one's asking the right questions.
I see the devastation all around me
Nobody's thinking about me and my family and my kids
And if we have Democrats at least raising some of those questions, hopefully they have a lot of good answers, but at least willing to raise some of those questions, I think we will politically profit from it.
Yeah, it's really it's it's it's it's quite challenging because it's very different than when social media was starting when Obama was running, right
Where like those companies were viewed quite positively by the public as as something different like for all the discussion they had of Wall Street or big oil or big pharma or big tobacco or all the bigs, right
They like there there's a sense that these country the these companies run by these new younger people were something different or better
And so Obama benefited a lot
from being seen as the tech candidate, right
That's not the same now, right
It is very it's much it's a much more complicated relationship
This tech is just in a lot of view voters views just like a segment of business that they're quite skeptical of and think is them over
And so you got but you also don't want to be like I think our best candidate is going to be seem like they understand the future um as oppo like and we have lost some of that over like in the post Obama years as Democrats.
No question
And so how do you sort of navigate that between, you know, the anti-tech view, but also being seen like you understand the benefits, but you're also very aware and willing to stand up to these companies to protect people from them, I guess, is the sort of the territory we're trying. >> You've got to lean into the benefits both in terms of AI and robotics, right
If no one dies in car crashes anymore, that'd be like the biggest public health benefit in the history of our country, right
robotics can probably play a role
around you know senior care and things but like so I think yes positives but but let's think about this I mean the dominant debate when you listen to you know Altman uh and Musk uh and even like people like Sachs is well don't worry if all the wealth goes to the big companies they don't even dispute it they'll give it back so I'm a Democratic candidate I would say in a room does anybody believe also by the way they're like the meritocracy party.
You know, Americans are about hard work and drive
Basically, what they're saying is you won't have to work anymore
The truth is some Americans don't want to work
A lot of people want to work
They get a lot of value and dignity out of it
It it really fills them up
And so, I think they're really vulnerable here
And part of it is just putting the words back.
Does anybody believe that all the wealth from AI should go to five people
People say no
Well, the people who are in charge now are saying that basically, yeah, it may all go to them, but don't worry, they're going to give it back in a dividend and you'll all get your piece and everything will be okay.
Like, it's ridiculous
And so, I think there's a big opening there
I think the skill to your point will be to not seem like you're a trogdite that you have your head focused on the future
You want to make sure that the benefits of this are widely shared and like healthcare is a great example of that.
But you know, we need to be careful about this in terms of what adjustments we have to make and also call on some of this economic model stuff that just does not withstand any scrutiny at all. >> What is truly unsustainable is to be let AI do whatever it wants, but also we're going to eliminate all of our green energy so that uh we're just like burning the planet.
You have to like like you need a compreh like I know this seems hard in this media environment
You need a comprehensive strategy with nuance to actually do it
And I think people like from the research I've seen people are both hopeful and skeptical and you got to kind of be able to fit right in that category like they have they're very concerned about impacts on their energy bill for sure.
Um impacts on their community from these giant data centers being built but also you know you know see some benefits in some way shape or form that can make their life easier
So like we needed we need an actual policy and if we are if the Republicans have no policy I think where the Republican governors have been better than us is they've been very critical of and focused on the effect on kids right and we've just not that we're not focused on we're just silent about it like we like we're just the party just seems to not have a lot to say
about maybe there are lots of individual candidates saying individual things but it's just not being heard by people because we don't have the it's not the most important people in the party doing it
We don't have presidential candidates doing it
We don't have the megaphone to get it out
But it just it feel I think it feels to a lot of voters and you see this show up is that we don't have anything to say about it and that's a problem.