Politicians estimate their voters too right-wing'.

Across all parties, Flemish politicians estimate the policy preferences of voters too right-wing, because the election results feed the image of a right-wing consensus. And because Flemish journalists too interpret public opinion too right-wing.

Jan-Frederik Abbeloos
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 3:25 am

Ask a hundred Flemish people with voting rights whether the retirement age should be a maximum of 67, and 91 will agree. Make Flemish politicians guess at that figure and, on average, they estimate that only 75 Flemings will agree (see graph).

It is one of the examples that political scientists Stefaan Walgrave, Karolin Soontjens and Julie Sevenans (University of Antwerp) cite to show that politicians are not so good at reading public opinion. In 2018, they interviewed 179 Flemish ministers, members of parliament and party leaders for this purpose.

The results of their research appear today in the book Politicians' reading of public opinion and its biases (Oxford University Press). Still underestimated by politicians: the number of Flemish people entitled to vote who want to keep polluting cars out of the inner cities, who never want to deport anybody to a country that violates human rights, or who want to retain compulsory voting at elections. For these last two propositions, there is a clear majority amongst Flemish voters, whereas politicians assume a minority. This is not without consequence. For example, compulsory voting was abolished for local elections. While in every electorate there is support for its retention', Sevenans points out.

Incorrect generalisation

Politicians may, of course, go against their own voters or public opinion, but remarkably enough they indicate that they do not (want to) do so. They even have the feeling that they can assess public opinion quite well. It is not that politicians do not care about what the public wants; on the contrary, they are very much concerned with it. This makes their errors of judgement all the more painful. Politicians claim to sense public opinion mainly through direct contact with 'ordinary citizens', the traditional media and on the basis of contacts with movements and pressure groups. To a lesser extent, they also rely on the social media.

Walgrave speaks of an 'amateurish approach' that reveals a distorted reality, something that, incidentally, also applies to politicians in Canada, Switzerland and Germany, the other countries covered in the broader study. Dossier eaters, mayors or politicians with a lot of experience or education do not fare any better. There is also hardly any difference between parties.

Striking: on the whole, politicians estimate the policy preferences of the voters to be more right-wing than they actually are. It is a bias that the researchers link in the first place to the election results. The success of N-VA and Vlaams Belang leads to the image, also among other parties, that the public mood in Flanders is rather right-wing', says Sevenans.

Walgrave warns that this is a false generalisation. It is based on the false assumption that voting behaviour is a perfect mirror for public opinion, but that is not the case at all.

Politicians and media reinforce each other in the conviction that the Flemish voter tends to the right on various issues' Julie Sevenans Researcher UAntwerpen

De Stemming, the opinion poll of De Standaard and VRT NWS, showed earlier that many voters do not agree with the party they vote for on all issues. Sometimes there is even another party that is closer to their opinions. Yet they choose the 'wrong' party for all sorts of reasons, for example because it has an inspiring leader or makes a certain election promise. In any case, the link between a vote and how the voter thinks in different dossiers is relative. Certainly where socio-economic issues are concerned, a right-wing bias leads to a distortion', says Walgrave.

Overcompensation

In regions or countries where right-wing parties are less dominant, such as in Wallonia, the bias is actually smaller, but not non-existent, and in countries like the United States it is much stronger. Here, the researchers point to the influence of social media, where right-wing politicians are usually much more active. They often set the tone there as well. Left-wing politicians we spoke to were reluctant to profile themselves online in the same way, with Conner Rousseau (Ahead) being a notable exception. It also leads to a distorted image of society,' says Walgrave.

This distortion also exists in the traditional media. There, Flemish journalists generally estimate public opinion to be more right-wing than it is (see graph). Also there, the social media and the election results seem to be the reasons for this right-wing bias. Although, perhaps, overcompensation for their own more left-wing positioning also plays a role among a majority of the 160 interviewed journalists. Politicians and media reinforce each other in the conviction that the Flemish voter tends towards the right on various issues', Sevenans concludes.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

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Pub: 30 Aug 2022 11:33 UTC

Edit: 30 Aug 2022 11:40 UTC

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