30% of 6M or 1.8M new cases per year would be prevented by the vaccine once released.
6 000 000 * 0.3 = 1 800 000
The grant would accelerate vaccine release by 3 years, meaning 5.4M cases would be prevented if the grant succeeds.
3 * 1 800 000 = 5 400 000
5.4M cases at 1 DALY lost per case puts the potential DALY value at 270B.
5 400 000 * 50 000 = 270 000 000 000
The grant has a 5% chance of success, which puts the grant value at 13.5B.
270 000 000 000 * 0.05 = 13 500 000 000
Assuming the grant has no further benefits other than the 3 year acceleration, this means the social ROI of the grant is 2700 times the initial investment.
13 500 000 000 / 5 000 000 = 2700

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Pub: Aug 02 2021 18:15 UTC
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