October 28th: The Day Iran Breaks the Bond Market

Sources & Citations

The Jay Martin Show. Published October 3, 2026.

Reporting & news sources

The equation Iran posted

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf), Speaker of Iran's Parliament, post on X, September 16, 2026 ("Straits Taylor Rule"). https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2100239566108279118
Al Jazeera, "Ghalibaf's maths missile at Trump decoded: Is Iran fixing US interest rates?" (Sep 17, 2026). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/17/ghalibafs-maths-missile-at-trump-decoded-is-iran-fixing-us-interest-rates
ThePrint, "Iran's Ghalibaf, US Fed & the 'Straits Taylor Rule': The 'joke' & the economics behind it" (Sep 18, 2026). https://theprint.in/economy/irans-ghalibaf-us-fed-the-straits-taylor-rule-the-joke-the-economics-behind-it/3046182/

The Fed's September decision

Federal Reserve, "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement" (Sep 16, 2026). https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf
Financial Times, via The Irish Times, "Federal Reserve raises rates for first time since 2023" (Sep 2026). https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2026/09/16/federal-reserve-raise-rates-for-first-time-since-2023/
Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar (next decision October 28, 2026). https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The attacks before the Fed meetings

CBS News, "U.S. forces hit IRGC-linked oil tankers as oil nears $100 a barrel" (Sep 8, 2026). https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-strait-of-hormuz-oil-gas-price-strikes/
BIC Magazine, "Houthis Attack Saudi Cities; US Hits Iranian Tankers, Oil Prices Spike" (Sep 8, 2026). https://www.bicmagazine.com/industry/commodities/saudi-aramco-jazan-refinery-attacked/
Al Jazeera, "Iran-backed Houthis seize strategic Mayun Island: Can they hold it?" (Sep 12, 2026). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/12/iran-backed-houthis-seize-strategic-mayun-island-can-they-hold-it
Al Jazeera, "Saudi Arabia says East-West pipeline hit by drones launched from Iraq" (Sep 11, 2026). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/11/saudi-arabia-says-east-west-pipeline-hit-by-drones-launched-from-iraq
Al Jazeera, "Saudi Arabia shuts critical oil pipeline after drone attack: What it means" (Sep 12, 2026). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/12/saudi-arabia-shuts-critical-oil-pipeline-after-drone-attack-what-happened
Khaleej Times, "Oman says tanker hit in Strait of Hormuz, search ongoing for two crew members" (Sep 15, 2026). https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/oman-tanker-hit-strait-of-hormuz-us-iran-war
Al Jazeera, "Yemen's Houthis claim attack on two Saudi oil tankers" (Jul 22, 2026). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/22/yemens-houthis-claim-attack-on-two-saudi-oil-tankers
Reuters, via Khaleej Times, "Oil hits $100 after Houthi attack on Saudi tankers worsens supply disruption" (Jul 23, 2026). https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/energy/oil-hits-100-after-houthi-attack-on-saudi-tankers-worsens-supply-disruption

Step 1: Oil becomes diesel

Associated Press, via WGCU, "US and Israel launch a major attack on Iran and Trump urges Iranians to 'take over your government'" (Feb 28, 2026). https://www.wgcu.org/top-story/2026-02-28/us-and-israel-launch-a-major-attack-on-iran-and-trump-urges-iranians-to-take-over-your-government
Trading Economics, "Brent Drops Further Despite Over 60% Monthly Surge" (Mar 31, 2026). https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil/news/538014
CBS News, "Diesel prices just hit a new record. Would a U.S. export ban bring relief?" (Sep 23, 2026). https://www.cbsnews.com/news/diesel-export-ban-record-price-impact/
Associated Press, via PBS NewsHour, "U.S. diesel prices soar past $6 a gallon, deepening strain for hauling everyday goods" (Sep 11, 2026). https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-diesel-prices-soar-past-6-a-gallon-deepening-strain-for-hauling-everyday-goods
Associated Press, via Fortune, "U.S. diesel prices are now 60% higher than they were before the Iran war" (Sep 12, 2026). https://fortune.com/2026/09/12/diesel-prices-trump-iran-war-farmers-costs-fertilizer-chemicals/
Scripps News, "US airfares are at their highest in years as the Iran war shocks oil and energy prices" (Jun 24, 2026). https://www.wptv.com/life/travel/us-airfares-are-at-their-highest-in-years-as-the-iran-war-shocks-oil-and-energy-prices

America's answer: energy dominance

The White House, "Establishing the National Energy Dominance Council," Executive Order 14213 (Feb 14, 2025). https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/establishing-the-national-energy-dominance-council
CNBC, via NBC Los Angeles, "'Tariffs all the way': Trump says European Union must buy U.S. oil and gas in trade ultimatum" (Dec 20, 2024). https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/business/money-report/tariffs-all-the-way-trump-says-european-union-must-buy-u-s-oil-and-gas-in-trade-ultimatum/3587000
MEED, "Qatar and Iran's LNG and gas assets suffer severe attacks" (Mar 20, 2026). https://www.meed.com/qatar-and-irans-lng-and-gas-assets-suffer-severe-attacks
Al Jazeera, "Iran warns it will show 'zero restraint' if infrastructure attacked again" (Mar 19, 2026). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19/iran-attacks-cut-17-of-qatars-lng-capacity-for-up-to-5-years-qatarenergy
International Energy Agency, "Russian refining sector struggles amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks" (Sep 17, 2026). https://www.iea.org/commentaries/russian-refining-sector-struggles-amid-intensifying-ukrainian-attacks
CBS News, "Transcript: Energy Secretary Chris Wright on 'Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,' Sept. 6, 2026." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chris-wright-energy-secretary-face-the-nation-09-06-2026/
Reuters, via EnergyNow, "QatarEnergy Buys 33 US LNG Cargoes to Offset Hormuz Disruption" (Jul 30, 2026). https://energynow.com/2026/07/qatarenergy-buys-33-us-lng-cargoes-to-offset-hormuz-disruption/
Euronews, "Two-thirds of Europe's LNG imports to come from the US amid increased reliance" (May 13, 2026). https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/05/13/two-thirds-of-europes-lng-imports-to-come-from-the-us-amid-increased-reliance
"Joint Statement Between the United States and the European Union on a Framework Agreement for Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade" (Aug 21, 2025). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/DCPD-202500861/html/DCPD-202500861.htm
USNI News, "Maduro, Wife Captured by American Forces; U.S. to Oversee Venezuela Ahead of New Government, Trump Says" (Jan 3, 2026). https://news.usni.org/2026/01/03/maduro-wife-captured-by-american-forces-u-s-to-oversee-venezuela-ahead-of-new-government-trump-says
Al Jazeera, "White House unveils more details of Trump's Venezuela oil deal" (Sep 1, 2026). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/1/white-house-unveils-more-details-of-trumps-venezuela-oil-deal
World Oil, "U.S.-Venezuela oil deal covers 17 fields, 65 Bbbl of reserves" (Sep 1, 2026). https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/9/1/u-s-venezuela-oil-deal-covers-17-fields-65-bbbl-of-reserves/

Who fired the shots

Axios, "Israel strikes Iran natural gas facility in coordination with U.S." (Mar 18, 2026). https://www.axios.com/2026/03/18/israel-strikes-iran-natural-gas-infrastructure
Axios, "After Tehran strikes, Trump says Israel won't attack Iran gas fields anymore" (Mar 19, 2026). https://www.axios.com/2026/03/19/iran-war-trump-israel-strike-gas
Kyiv Independent, "US helps Ukraine target Russian energy infrastructure, FT reports" (Oct 12, 2025). https://kyivindependent.com/us-helps-ukraine-target-russian-energy-infrastructure-ft-reports/
Reuters, via GV Wire, "US Attacks Iran's Kharg Island, Trump Says" (Mar 13, 2026). https://gvwire.com/2026/03/13/us-attacks-irans-kharg-island-trump-says/
Arab News, "US strikes more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, CENTCOM says" (Mar 14, 2026). https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2636330

Two clocks

TheStreet, "Scott Bessent's Hormuz declaration puts Chevron at the center" (Aug 12, 2026). https://www.thestreet.com/investing/scott-bessent-hormuz-declaration-puts-chevron-at-center-oil-brent-crude

Data & reference sources

American Trucking Associations, "Economics and Industry Data" (trucks moved roughly 72.7% of the nation's freight by weight in 2024). https://trucking.org/economics-and-industry-data
World Bank Data Blog, "Fertilizer prices surge as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten supplies" (May 14, 2026). https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/fertilizer-prices-surge-as-strait-of-hormuz-disruptions-tighten-
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index news release for August 2026 (Sep 11, 2026). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm
Freddie Mac, "Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6% for the First Time in 3.5 Years" (Feb 26, 2026). https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-drop-below-6-first-time-35-years
Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (7.03% on Sep 24, 2026). https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data, "Debt to the Penny" ($40.1 trillion on Sep 21, 2026). https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny
Congressional Budget Office, "Monthly Budget Review: August 2026" (Sep 9, 2026). https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-09/61984-MBR.pdf
U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint" (Jun 16, 2025). https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504
U.S. Energy Information Administration, "The United States produced more crude oil than any other country in 2025" (Jul 9, 2026). https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67844
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, U.S. crude oil exports reach a record in April 2026 (Jul 8, 2026). https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67825
Oil & Gas Journal, "EIA: US LNG exports rose 23% in first-half 2026 amid higher capacity" (Sep 1, 2026). https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/news/55402144/eia-us-lng-exports-rose-23-in-first-half-2026-amid-higher-capacity
Enerdata, "The US reached 26% share of global LNG exports in 2025, according to EIA" (Jul 17, 2026). https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/us-reached-26-share-global-lng-exports-2025-according-eia.html

Historical & academic sources

John B. Taylor, "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 39 (December 1993), pp. 195–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(93)90009-L
Niall Ferguson, "Ferguson's Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of Power," Hoover Institution History Working Paper 202502 (Feb 21, 2025). https://www.hoover.org/research/fergusons-law-debt-service-military-spending-and-fiscal-limits-power

On-screen charts & data

All charts, counters and diagrams are original work built from the sources above: diesel prices (AAA, via CBS News and AP), freight share (American Trucking Associations), urea (World Bank), airfares and inflation (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), mortgage rates (Freddie Mac), national debt (U.S. Treasury), interest and military outlays (Congressional Budget Office), Brent crude (Trading Economics).

The mortgage payment comparison is our own calculation: principal and interest on a $400,000 30-year fixed loan at 5.98% and at 7.03%.

Public-domain sources

Via Wikimedia Commons:

1979 $10,000 U.S. Treasury Coupon Bond. The Joe I. Herbstman Memorial Collection of American Finance. U.S. government work.
Series 2009 $100 Federal Reserve Note. Bureau of Engraving and Printing. U.S. government work.
Flag of the United States. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_the_United_States.svg
Flag of Iran. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Iran.svg

Map data: Natural Earth (public domain). https://www.naturalearthdata.com

Creative Commons sources

Via Wikimedia Commons. Each image was cut out and adapted for the animations.

"Diesel Gas Pump," Tony Webster, CC BY 2.0. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Diesel_Gas_Pump_(54474872295).jpg
"Niall Ferguson addresses delegates at the ARC Forum, 30 October 2023," via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.

Excerpts shown for commentary

The X profile and posts of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) are shown as published. The X logo is a trademark of X Corp.
The first page of Niall Ferguson's Hoover Institution working paper is shown as a credited excerpt.

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Custom animation

All animation, motion graphics, diagrams, titles and charts in this video are original work created in-house. The maps are built in-house on Natural Earth public-domain map data.

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