• Ukrainian troops in Mariupol was surrounded and cutoff from supplies for almost three months. They didn't stop fighting till the very end.
  • Assuming ROC troops will fold after a few weeks of bombing is just hubris.
  • What will happen to landed PLA troops when the Hegemon intervenes? PLAAF and PLAN have to divert valuable assets to support and supply them, and they have to protect those assets from Hegemon's forces, instead of using those assets to fight the Hegemon.

Ukrainian troops in Mariupol had also been afforded a massive soviet-era bunker specifically equipped to hold large numbers of people for extended durations of time, had stockpiled food and other supplies to last for quite a while, had access to clean drinking water, electricity, and there were only 1500-2500 of them in there. They also were able to operate outside of the Azovstal bunker for a considerable portion of the siege while the noose was still tightening, and thus were likely able to scrape the parts of the city they had access to clean of supplies during the retreat. There were also apparently instances of the russian encirclement being penetrated and supplies being delivered, though that is of course fairly dubious.

Additionally, for the majority of the siege, they were still fighting. It might not seem so intuitively, but troops are overwhelmingly less likely to hoist the white flag if they can at least fight back in some way. One of the interesting trends observed in psych casualties during both World Wars was that vanishingly few soldiers were rendered unable to carry on as a result of firefights (during which, in every military force that has data available to look into, infantrymen would almost invariably keep fighting for longer, and in light of far more daunting survival prospects... so long as they still had ammunition, were still fighting alongside others from their unit, and did so even more pronouncedly if their unit had taken significant casualties already. Thus, the Azovstal fighters, still able to draw blood, fighting side by side with large numbers of people they likely had come to view nearly as family, and with the ones who had already been killed in the process of making it as far as they had still very much fresh in their memory, it's practically no wonder they kept it up until they were essentially out of ammunition, were running out of survival, medical, and other supplies, and only did so after they were no longer able even to fight back.

Because you wanna know what the overwhelming amount of psych casualties were attributed to? Artillery. Unlike ye olde mano a mano combat, where one can fight back... artillery is significantly less "fair." Firstly, keep in mind - the Ukrainians lasted roughly a month once they actually went into Azovstal to hunker down (4/21 was when Mariupol was declared "Liberated" and Azovstal was surrounded and locked down to 5/16 when the Ukrainians began coming out). This is already a fairly long time for them to have held out, and was - again - probably in part due to them being stuck in it together (for the same reason that Machinegun teams performed a literal order of magnitude better than single-man machinegun positions, that being "im not gonna be that guy who doesn't wanna [x]" - in the MG case, it's "shoot the enemies," in the Azovstal case, it's "surrender to the Russians"), and having likely lost many friends in the process of slowing the Russian constriction of their positions; so just keep that in mind.

Taiwan, a nation of 23,000,000+, the overwhelming majority of whom are not experienced infantrymen, who have not seen combat, who have not lost friends or immediate family in a fight against the PLA, and who are accustomed to a high standard of living, aren't exactly affected en-masse by this "warrior's resolve" as I've heard some nerd 71F call the phenomenon. After experiencing the violent, rapid fires employment at the outset of the conflict, and immediately losing all power, running water, wifi and cellular service, etc. it's safe to say that the population would be a little rattled. Constantly seeing and hearing important infrastructure be destroyed, and likely seeing or hearing about ROCA/N/AF casualties would be disheartening in its own right. After the first 2-3 days (I brought up that 71F because these are things we've discussed, and which there has been a good deal of research into), as this trend continues, the effects of a nonfunctioning wastewater and freshwater system, and as perishable foods begin to go bad in refrigerators (lots of folks will do the dumb option and open it at some point, letting lots of heat in). It's also likely that by this point, the ROCA, alongside municipal authorities (police as the obvious standout) would begin operationalizing a system of rationing food/water, but with connectivity infrastructure practically nonexistent, it would end up being done in a fragmented manner, with the supplies themselves being inefficiently distributed, and the ad-hoc nature of such endeavors (a municipal policeman, while driving to a warehouse containing foodstuffs to load up and drive back to a distribution point might not have persistent UAS ISR as the first thing on his mind), would be subject to strikes on not only storage locations, but on transport vehicles and (as mentioned earlier in the thread) supporting infrastructure that lets them be vehicles as opposed to just like... big metal boxes on wheels. While conscription would likely be occurring, it is extremely difficult to instill the proficiencies inherent to light infantrymen while under such a sensor blanket. Many of the facilities to support administrative and operational C4 would be destroyed, relying on generators (which themselves require fuel, a limited resource), or would be very roughly replicated in ad-hoc camouflaged or inconspicuous locations. In addition, many would die while training as the PLA ISTAR complex surveils and prosecutes an engagement in the event a training activity is found.

At around this point, (Day 4+), PLA PsyOps aircraft (Y-8/9XZ for instance) would begin a practically 24/7 TV/Radio psyops campaign. TV would be uh, not crazy effective I imagine (no power), but folks with battery/crank radios at home or in their car could conceivably be subjected to it. Destroyed ROCA vehicles, installations, etc. would be a fairly common sight, and new ones joining them would be a familiar sound to those who live in areas where there would be a meaningful ROCA presence. This would also be around the time that lack of access to sanitation would present negative effects. There's a lot of septic systems in Taiwan, but in more urban areas, it's sewer or suffer. As toilets stop being so useful, alternatives are likely to be sought (if there's woodland nearby, there; if not, trash bag - this was a funny part of spectating the Texas blackout last year, because so many people's water got borked that it became common to just poo in bags and whatnot). Disposal of this solid waste, if the bag solution is opted for, would be an issue. Without those fun yellow garbage trucks to take trash bags out to, there's not a whole lot of places where you can dispose of biohazards like human waste. These urban areas would also be the first to suffer pre-stocked food shortages, both privately in people's homes, and organized food stocks. PLA targeting of warehouses storing strategic material of that sort, extremely difficult to functionally impossible distribution coordination between regions would deplete what stock did remain at a much higher rate, and the massive disruption/complete collapse of normal commercial and agricultural activity (especially with no more fertilizer/mechanized farm equipment) would result in problems beginning to mount sharpish-like.

By Day 7, morale (especially in urban areas) would be doing its best Titanic impression. Waste buildup, constant tactical strikes on ROCA forces, logistics vehicles and units, troops unlucky enough to be seen and engaged, etc. constant propaganda over the radio, via leaflets, etc. being broadcast with news of wiped out US navy forces, destroyed USAF bases, yadah yadah. It wouldn't be great. More pressingly though, the food and water situations would start to get noticeably bad. 23,000,000 people is a LOT of people, and ~80% of them live in urban or hyper-urban areas without convenient access to clean, safe drinking water (they're actually #18 on the UN's water scarcity list), nor access to a means of acquiring food. While it's unlikely any except the laziest of Taiwan's citizens would die from dehydration, it's definitely likely that precursor dehydration symptoms would become more common in urban regions. Food-wise, as ROCA and local authority led distribution points begin to buckle under demand (population density is a bitch, and it's hard to transport enough food to, set up distribution points for, and distribute rations for that many people in such a small area. These rations vehicles would also have fairly short shelf-lives, unlikely to avoid UAS attack once they've driven clear of collateral casualty risks. Fuel would also begin to reach critical levels even for the military, who would have practical 100% ownership of all that remained at the outset of the war.

By Day 10 or so, the notion of surrender would probably be on the lips of many Taiwanese citizens. Unlike fighting alongside against an enemy that can be killed with others who you don't want to let down, this would be an experience of seemingly unending worsening conditions, worsening hunger, worsening thirst, worsening smell of feces outside, and watching friends and family suffer from it too. Those inputs produce drastically different outputs from people. It's likely much of the petrol the military secured for itself would be gone, and there's the potential for citizens to begin directed to storage locations where food remains. Note, while the PLAAF would likely be reasonably capable of attacking these stocks, it's unlikely that it would be able to totally wipe it out.

Day 14-15 would see mild dehydration from insufficient amounts of fluids being ingested. Some would likely go for less-than-safe water, potentially creating infectious disease problems in which individuals who are clustered around those food stock sites end up being perfect places for that stuff to spread. Limited to no medical infrastructure operational, and what can be thrown together likely being prioritized for ROCA casualties and/or with a rigorous triage system for who gets medical attention despite it already being stretched well beyond conventional limits. Open discussion of surrender is typically modeled as taking hold around the 2 week mark, which is here. ROCA command and control at this point would be practically nonexistent, and it would not be surprising for the lines to blur between authority and regular person, as everyone is pretty much equally hungry, thirsty, and "straight up not having a great time"

Day 20: Keep in mind, the 1500-2500 folks at Azov surrendered around this point despite still at least having food, access to freshwater, eachother, and a pretty good reason not to surrender. At this point, the 23,000,000 people of Taiwan would start really getting plunged into no-fun land. Fatigue and other factors leading to lack of sanitation, compounded with the high density of many people, plus the potential more impulsive individuals to do something stupid like drinking unsafe water, can lead to sickness becoming increasingly common. Mild dehydration may begin encroaching en-masse, as less able-bodied people would be pretty much on their survival legs. Again, though technically there's enough freshwater for there to be no issues, that's when it's not just 18.5 million first world living accustomed people all concentrated in small areas trying to clamor for it with no electricity, no internet, no communications, no infrastructure, etc. etc. etc. rainfall would be a literal lifesaver for many. It would also be around this point that I'd anticipate PLA seizure of Penghu, as they'll have been able to marshall at least a few amphibious brigades to the region, and will be nearing the end of their workup exercises. Most, at this point, would just want to go back to living comfortably, and would care next to none about ideals. I don't know if you've ever experienced mid-to-high "mild dehydration" before, but I actually have; and I assure you, it's around the point at which you don't really have the capacity to want to do anything other than to feel better lol. Maybe there's billy badass out there who'd keep standing up and passing out until after a few times, his legs grew too weak to hold him, and he there mumbling "i can do it...' to himself, but 99.9999% of people are simply at their limit when they reach this point. "Fatigue makes cowards of us all."

Day 25: Invasion. We'll say 2 Brigades of PLANMC forces, supported by ample indirect fires from penghu, and larger PHL-16 fires from Fujian, as well as rotary, fixed wing, and UAS reconnaissance and shooters to provide prompt dynamic prosecution, land on the northern and southern portions of Taiwan's west coast. At WORST there will be a very local, anemically ineffective set of ambushes/skirmishes as they make their way inland to establish a beachhead. PLA airmobile, airborne, and SOF forces also may be deployed farther inland so long as the SHORAD situation permits it (it likely does).

Day 26: Following consolidation of beachheads and secured port infrastructure by amphibious forces, and secured airfields with patched up runways by engineering formations, large scale air/sealift operations commence to first maintain a force-protection necessitated amount of local combat power, but transitions to large scale HA ops, with PLA forces setting up and manning food and water distribution points, erecting temporary medical facilities to treat mild conditions, et cetera et cetera.

Day 30: By day 30, it's basically game set match. There's not much of an "out" at this point, as the population will be overwhelmingly, if not practically unanimously for agreeing to terms. Nobody wants to prolong the suffering, and nobody wants to go back to being in such a poor condition.

At day 30, that's when O-FRP mandates that 6 CSGs must be theoretically deployable lol. aka, if we had 3 underway (let's say 1 in the Med, 1 3FLT CSG and CSG5 Ronald Reagan, that means only more CSGs would be deployed, with the only forces around until that time being potentially the Mediterranean CSG if it manages to transit basically to the other side of the world in time, and even then, a single CSG is basically just 60-90 strike sorties per day with JASSM-ER, for a few days, and then it's just 100-115ish cyclic counter air sorties per 24h but at maximum standoff, so all in all, "meh." SSNs may have played a role, and I'm certain we'll have knocked at least 3 or 4 surface combatants out by this point, and TLAMs may have struck a few (single digit lol) targets, but that's about it. If we want to keep things going, we're going to need a hell of a lot more buildup, but there's a point at which the question becomes "what for?" After all, Japan would be getting subjected to a similar, if less intense version of the Taiwan experience, and would likely be asking rather firmly for the US to bring things to an end, alongside just about every other major economy in the world, who have all had their GDP put through the rinse cycle by sanctions packages placed on PRC entities and individuals.

Personally, this is where I can't imagine things petering off, or a settlement being brokered. Nobody involved wants to keep fighting, nobody involved can really even do too much more to one another. It would just be pointless bloodshed for bloodshed's sake. I sure hope we don't see it ever happen in real life.

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Pub: 24 Aug 2022 19:58 UTC
Views: 1146