Vaccine associated Myocarditis incidence rates as low as 1 in 6,201 for New Zealand
Executive Summary
Our analysis of New Zealand's Medsafe Covid-19 Vaccine Safety Report #39 data shows Myocarditis/Pericarditis incidence rates as low as 1 in 6,201 for Males in the 20-29 year age bracket on Pfizer Dose Number 2. Females in this same category see a rate of 1 in 8,805.
This data set is for an eligible population that is now 92% fully vaccinated and 95% having at least one dose.
Introduction
The latest Medsafe Covid-19 Vaccine Safety Report #39 lists Myocarditis/Pericarditis (a serious adverse event) with 455 cases for data collected from 19 Feb 2021 to 31 Dec 2021.
It further lists the total cumulative number of doses of vaccine administered as being 8,184,892 doses.
Using these two figures we can calculate the incidence rate of Myocarditis/Pericarditis being a rate of 1 in 17,988.
This number is more damning than those spoken about by the figure heads in government and academia who appear on mainstream media to downplay the risk, however in recent reports adolescent males in Hong Kong had reported an incidence rate as low as 1 in 2680. Such a low rate is a result of breaking down the data into Gender and Age brackets which makes us curious as to how things look in New Zealand.
At the very bottom of the Safety reports you can download the raw AEFI Line Listing data in a spreadsheet which lists all reported adverse events for cases.
Please note that we often find errors in Medsafe's reports when comparing it to the raw data, one such error is the number of Myocarditis/Pericarditis cases being 454 (one less than the 455 listed in Medsafe's summary).
Analysis
The first thing we looked at is a break down of Myocarditis and Pericarditis with 214 and 290 events respectively. This adds up to a total of 504 events, however a single person can have both types of event recorded which gives the 454 distinct persons.
The following tables provide a breakdown of the demographics of these 454 persons.
By Gender
Gender | Count | Percent |
---|---|---|
Male | 261 | 57.4% |
Female | 184 | 40.5% |
Other | 9 | 2% |
By Dose Number
Dose Number | Count | Percent |
---|---|---|
1 | 220 | 48.4% |
2 | 220 | 48.4% |
3 | 14 | 3% |
By Age Range
Age Range (years) | Count | Percent |
---|---|---|
10 to 19 | 48 | 10.5% |
20 to 29 | 121 | 26.6% |
30 to 39 | 109 | 24% |
40 to 49 | 74 | 16.2% |
50 to 59 | 52 | 11.4% |
60 to 69 | 26 | 5.7% |
70 to 79 | 19 | 4.1% |
80 to 89 | 4 | 0.8% |
90 to 99 | 1 | 0.2% |
This top level data confirms what has been reported worldwide where the adverse event affects Males more than Female, but what is immediately obvious is the age bracket of 20 to 29 and 30 to 39 year old's being significantly greater than the other brackets. Are there more people in the population for these age brackets that would explain this imbalance?
Going back to the Safety report it has a section of "Observed versus expected deaths" and data tables breaking the number of doses down per age group.
To go off track for a minute Dose 1's table lists 3,731,260 and Dose 2 at 3,188,796 which gives a combined total of 6,920,056 doses. However the reported cumulative total in this report is 8,184,892 this means we have a difference of 1,264,836 doses, so one would initially assume these are 3rd or booster doses.
Cross referencing this with data here on 12 Jan 2022 it says only 671,051 "third primary" + "booster" doses have been given, which suggests the Medsafe data has an error in it. It looks like the error is in the Dose 2 table as we would expect the total to be closer to 3.6 million as Dose 2's lag is around 100k behind Dose 1's from the cross referenced data source.
However lets assume we didn't notice this issue and use the data as provided.
The following table breaks the 454 case count down by Dose number and Age bracket so we can then use the data from the "Observed versus expected deaths" tables. The Incidence Rate is calculated by: (Dose Administered / Count).
Dose No. | Age Bracket | Count | Dose Administered | Incidence Rate |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 10 to 19 | 18 | 414,368 | 1 in 23,030 |
1 | 20 to 29 | 58 | 560,394 | 1 in 9,661 |
1 | 30 to 39 | 57 | 605,040 | 1 in 10,614 |
1 | 40 to 49 | 38 | 551,641 | 1 in 14,516 |
1 | 50 to 59 | 29 | 577,819 | 1 in 19,924 |
1 | 60 to 69 | 11 | 500,660 | 1 in 45,514 |
1 | 70 to 79 | 7 | 342,633 | 1 in 48,947 |
1 | 80+ | 2 | 178,705 | 1 in 89,352 |
2 | 10 to 19 | 30 | 305,793 | 1 in 10,193 |
2 | 20 to 29 | 58 | 415,987 | 1 in 7,172 |
2 | 30 to 39 | 49 | 488,297 | 1 in 9,965 |
2 | 40 to 49 | 36 | 477,274 | 1 in 13,257 |
2 | 50 to 59 | 23 | 524,230 | 1 in 22,792 |
2 | 60 to 69 | 13 | 473,862 | 1 in 36,450 |
2 | 70 to 79 | 9 | 331,272 | 1 in 36,808 |
2 | 80+ | 2 | 172,081 | 1 in 86,040 |
3 | 20 to 29 | 5 | n/a | |
3 | 30 to 39 | 3 | n/a | |
3 | 60 to 69 | 2 | n/a | |
3 | 70 to 79 | 3 | n/a | |
3 | 80 to 89 | 1 | n/a |
In the beginning of this writing we showed how an incidence rate of 1 in 17,988 was calculated easily from Medsafe's report, however when broken down into Age brackets that data becomes significantly worse from a safety point of view with an incidence rate as low as 1 in 7,172 for 20 to 29 year olds on dose number 2.
Could it be worse though as the Hong Kong data suggests when we break it further down by Gender.
One issue we face is we don't have the data point for the number of doses administered by Gender and Age Bracket. However this is of no concern since we are dealing with a large proportion of the population (92-95%) which has from practical purposes a 50/50 split between male and female - 50.8% female according to online sources. We can therefore divide the Dose Administered column in the above table to account for the number of Male and Female doses administered by age bracket.
From the above table Dose 1, 10 to 19 years we have a Dose Administered of 414,368 and a population gender split of 50.8% female. We can then calculate our Gender Dose Administered figures with the following:
Male: 414,368 * (49.2/100) = 203,869
Female: 414,368 * (50.8/100) = 210,498
Gender | Dose No. | Age Bracket | Count | Dose Administered | Incidence Rate |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
male | 1 | 10 to 19 | 12 | 203,869 | 1 in 16989 |
male | 1 | 20 to 29 | 37 | 275,713 | 1 in 7,451 |
male | 1 | 30 to 39 | 34 | 297,679 | 1 in 8,755 |
male | 1 | 40 to 49 | 22 | 271,407 | 1 in 12,336 |
male | 1 | 50 to 59 | 16 | 284,286 | 1 in 17,767 |
male | 1 | 60 to 69 | 5 | 246,324 | 1 in 49,264 |
male | 1 | 70 to 79 | 4 | 168,575 | 1 in 42,143 |
male | 1 | 80+ | 1 | 87,922 | 1 in 87,922 |
male | 2 | 10 to 19 | 23 | 150,450 | 1 in 6,541 |
male | 2 | 20 to 29 | 33 | 204,665 | 1 in 6,201 |
male | 2 | 30 to 39 | 26 | 240,242 | 1 in 9,240 |
male | 2 | 40 to 49 | 16 | 234,818 | 1 in 14,676 |
male | 2 | 50 to 59 | 6 | 257,921 | 1 in 42,986 |
male | 2 | 60 to 69 | 10 | 233,140 | 1 in 23,314 |
male | 2 | 70 to 79 | 5 | 162,985 | 1 in 32,597 |
male | 3 | 20 to 29 | 5 | n/a | |
male | 3 | 30 to 39 | 2 | n/a | |
male | 3 | 60 to 69 | 1 | n/a | |
male | 3 | 70 to 79 | 2 | n/a | |
male | 3 | 80 to 89 | 1 | n/a | |
female | 1 | 10 to 19 | 6 | 210,498 | 1 in 35,083 |
female | 1 | 20 to 29 | 19 | 284,680 | 1 in 14,983 |
female | 1 | 30 to 39 | 21 | 307,360 | 1 in 14,636 |
female | 1 | 40 to 49 | 15 | 280,233 | 1 in 18,682 |
female | 1 | 50 to 59 | 13 | 293,532 | 1 in 22,579 |
female | 1 | 60 to 69 | 6 | 254,335 | 1 in 42,389 |
female | 1 | 70 to 79 | 3 | 174,057 | 1 in 58,019 |
female | 1 | 80+ | 1 | 90,782 | 1 in 90,782 |
female | 2 | 10 to 19 | 6 | 155,342 | 1 in 25,890 |
female | 2 | 20 to 29 | 24 | 211,321 | 1 in 8,805 |
female | 2 | 30 to 39 | 21 | 248,054 | 1 in 11,812 |
female | 2 | 40 to 49 | 20 | 242,455 | 1 in 20,204 |
female | 2 | 50 to 59 | 17 | 266,308 | 1 in 15,665 |
female | 2 | 60 to 69 | 3 | 240,721 | 1 in 80,240 |
female | 2 | 70 to 79 | 4 | 168,286 | 1 in 42,071 |
female | 2 | 80+ | 2 | 87,417 | 43,708 |
female | 3 | 30 to 39 | 1 | n/a | |
female | 3 | 60 to 69 | 1 | n/a | |
female | 3 | 70 to 79 | 1 | n/a | |
other | 1 | 20 to 29 | 2 | n/a | |
other | 1 | 30 to 39 | 2 | n/a | |
other | 1 | 40 to 49 | 1 | n/a | |
other | 2 | 10 to 19 | 1 | n/a | |
other | 2 | 20 to 29 | 1 | n/a | |
other | 2 | 30 to 39 | 2 | n/a |
By breaking down into Gender the incident rate gets lower with Male 20 to 29 year olds on dose number 2 with an incidence rate of 1 in 6,201 and Females in the same category at 1 in 8,805
Discussion
As we identified above we suspect the Dose 2 data provided by Medsafe is wrong due to the disparity with the cross referenced data. If we are correct about this then the incidence rates for Dose 2 should rise back into the 1 in 7 thousand range, either way the numbers are horrifying from what is implied in mainstream media.
A document dated 21 July 2021 obtained via an Official Information Act request here discusses Myocarditis following vaccination and looks at what background rates in New Zealand are and abroad. The rate of Myocarditis in the overall population from 2011-2019 is shown in the following table:
Demographic | Background Incidence Rate | Safety Report #39 Incidence Rate |
---|---|---|
Total Population | 1 in 55,248 | 1 in 17,988 |
Males | 1 in 41,152 | 1 in 31,359 |
Females | 1 in 82,644 | 1 in 44,483 |
0-9 years | 1 in 500,000 | n/a, vaccine only available for 12 years and up |
10-19 years | 1 in 131,578 | 1 in 10,193 - for 2 doses |
20-29 years | 1 in 46,948 | 1 in 7,172 - for 2 doses |
As we can see when broken down by age group the background rate versus the reported incidence rates are an order of magnitude out for the 10-19 year age group.
In a letter dated 15 Dec 2021 from the Ministry of Health sent out to the medical community titled "Urgent update on COVID-19 Vaccine-associated Myocarditis and Pericarditis" it warns about recent reports of Myocarditis following the Pfizer vaccine. They try to down play the media attention of some cases who died by saying:
We need to ensure that consumers are well informed of this rare side effect and know when to seek help
In New Zealand, the true incidence of vaccine-associated myocarditis is unknown as the onset of symptoms occurs in the first few days after vaccination and is potentially under-reported. However, the overall rate of this event in New Zealand is reported to be around 3 per 100,000 vaccinations
Their rate of 3 per 100,000 is an incidence rate of 1 in 33,333 which downplays the real numbers calculated above, whilst admitting the Safety Report data comes from CARM and is under reported, in one source it may only represent as little as 5% of the cases! Some of you may have noticed the "33" could be of some significance ;)
Conclusion
For those who have made it this far and have bothered to read this analysis, little conclusion is needed other than to ask yourself is a product safe if it has an incidence rate of 1 in a million, or is it safe with a rate of 1 in 6,201? Everyone has there own standards for what number is considered safe, here you can decide yourself rather than be deceived by the propaganda which downplays and hides the truth.
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